Bucks vs. Wizards Prediction, NBA Odds & Best Bets (10/21)

Fact checked at 7:58 AM ET, Oct 21, 2026

Odds as of Oct 21, 6:46 AM ET

Neither of these teams looks much like the one that played four times last season. Milwaukee sent Giannis Antetokounmpo and Bobby Portis to Miami for Tyler Herro, Kel'el Ware, Jaime Jaquez Jr. and Kasparas Jakucionis, and Taylor Jenkins coaches his first game for the Bucks. Washington went 17-65 with the league's worst defensive rating, and gets a full season of Trae Young and Anthony Davis. The Wizards are the home favorite. Milwaukee finished 32-50.

No. 1 pick AJ Dybantsa (left ankle sprain) is out for Washington, along with Tristan Vukcevic (hip) and Jamir Watkins (ACL). Bilal Coulibaly or Tre Johnson is expected to start in Dybantsa's place. Milwaukee's only listing is rookie Nate Ament, probable with an ankle sprain, and its projected starters are Ryan Rollins, Herro, Jaquez, Kyle Kuzma and Myles Turner. Tip is 7:00 PM ET Wednesday at Capital One Arena.

With Dybantsa sitting, the Wizards' offense goes through Young. Expect a steady diet of pick-and-roll with Davis, Alex Sarr and Deandre Ayton rolling to the rim, which should pile up assists for Young and put a lot of shots in front of Turner. Both picks come from that one picture of how Washington plays.

Bucks vs. Wizards Predictions

• Pick #1: Trae Young Over 9.5 Assists (-132)
• Pick #2: Myles Turner Over 1.5 Blocks (+133)

PICK #1: Trae Young Over 9.5 Assists (-132)

In 2024-25, his last full season, Young averaged 11.6 assists and got to double digits in about two of every three games. His career average is 9.8. Injuries limited him to 15 games last season. In the seven where he played 30-plus minutes for Atlanta, he reached 10 assists four times, and his five games in Washington came under a minutes limit (he never played more than 24).

The preseason is the current evidence, and it points up. He was cleared for camp healthy, and his minutes went 17, 23, 28, 28 over four games. He had 11 assists against Brooklyn and 7 at New Orleans in the two longest outings, and 30 across all 96 minutes, roughly 11 per 36. Dybantsa's absence takes another ball handler out of the starting five.

-132 implies a 56.9% chance. What could go wrong is his workload: if Washington holds him near 28 minutes again, 10 assists sits near the top of his range, and the 8 turnovers against Brooklyn show how sloppy it can get. Give him a normal starter's night and this line is below what he has done for most of his career.

PICK #2: Myles Turner Over 1.5 Blocks (+133)

Turner blocked 11 shots in 88 preseason minutes. He started all four games he played, with 1 against Minnesota, 2 at Oklahoma City, 5 at Charlotte and 3 at Indiana, so three of the four cleared this line.

His longer record backs the plus price. He averages 2.1 blocks for his career and had 2.0 a game in 2024-25. Last season was a down year, 1.6 a game in 26.9 minutes over 71 starts, and he still had two or more in 31 of them, or 43.7%. At +133 the implied probability is 42.9%, so even that season roughly pays its way, and his preseason rate sits well above it.

Washington's frontcourt gives him targets: Davis, Sarr and Ayton do most of their work near the basket, and Young's drives end there too. Ware is the threat to this one. He is pushing for center minutes, and a lopsided score either way could also shorten Turner's night.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.