Alabama vs. LSU Prediction, CFB Week 10 Odds & Best Bets (11/7)

Fact checked at 9:05 AM ET, Nov 7, 2026

Odds as of 8:07 AM ET, Nov 7, 2026

No. 5 Alabama (6-2, 4-2 SEC) visits No. 14 LSU (6-2, 3-2) at 3:30 PM ET at Tiger Stadium in Baton Rouge. Both teams have two losses and both are coming off an open date. LSU is a 6-point favorite with the total at 52.5, and 81% of the spread money is on LSU from 60% of the bets. Alabama has won the last three meetings, and this is Lane Kiffin's first season at LSU.

We think this game is decided by Sam Leavitt's arm. Alabama gives up 222.4 passing yards a game and 7.8 yards an attempt, and Leavitt comes in healthy after the week off and far sharper than he was in a rough first three games. Both picks ride on that: his yardage, and a touchdown for the receiver he's been hitting for big plays. Leavitt and Keelon Russell are the expected starters, and the forecast is mostly sunny, mid-70s, with a light wind.

Alabama vs. LSU Predictions

• Pick #1: Sam Leavitt 240+ Passing Yards (-186)
• Pick #2: Jackson Harris Anytime Touchdown (+120)

PICK #1: Sam Leavitt 240+ Passing Yards (-186)

Leavitt has thrown for at least 275 yards in each of his last four games against FBS teams: 312 against Texas A&M, 275 at Kentucky, 289 against Mississippi State and 388 at Auburn. The first three games were a different story. He threw three touchdowns and five interceptions, landed on the injury report the week of the Ole Miss game and managed 158 yards in a 32-24 loss. Over his last five games, McNeese included, he's completed 123 of 163 passes.

LSU doesn't take its foot off the passing game when it's ahead, either. Leavitt threw for 312 in a 35-6 win, 289 in a 31-0 win and 388 in a 38-17 win. Alabama's secondary has been boom-or-bust all year, with soft coverage that gets bailed out by takeaways often enough to save some games.

That's where the danger is. An interception or two can kill drives before the yards pile up, and Leavitt also runs a lot, and yards on carries he keeps for himself don't count here. The price isn't cheap: -186 implies 65.0%. He has reached 240 in five of seven games against FBS teams this season (McNeese, an FCS team, is left out), and both misses, 230 against Clemson and the Ole Miss game, came before his current run.

PICK #2: Jackson Harris Anytime Touchdown (+120)

All seven of Harris' touchdown catches have come in LSU's last four games against FBS teams: two against Texas A&M, one at Kentucky, two against Mississippi State and two at Auburn. He caught one, three and one pass in the first three games. Since then he has six or more catches in four of five, and he's turned into Leavitt's big-play target, averaging 17.6 yards a catch.

Auburn showed how this works with tight end Trey'Dez Green back. Green caught five passes for 50 yards and a touchdown in his return, and Harris still went for nine catches, 178 yards and two scores. Green is a 6-foot-7 target near the goal line, though, and he's questionable on the latest SEC availability report, so Harris could lose some looks near the goal line if Green plays.

At +120 the implied chance is 45.5%. Harris has scored in four of seven games against FBS teams, including each of the last four, and Alabama's coverage keeps giving up chunk plays. The way this misses is LSU moving the ball and settling for field goals.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.