Air Force vs. Army Prediction, CFB Week 10 Odds & Best Bets (11/7)

Fact checked at 9:11 AM ET, Nov 7, 2026

Odds as of 8:06 AM ET, Nov 7, 2026

Air Force (6-2) visits Army (5-3) at 7:30 PM ET at Michie Stadium in West Point with the Commander-in-Chief's Trophy on the line. The Falcons already beat Navy 14-9, so a win here clinches it. Army has won the last three meetings and is a 4-point favorite, with the total at 43.5.

Army leads the nation in rushing at 342.5 yards a game and Air Force is second at 341. They're also the two worst passing teams in the country, and both rank in the top three in time of possession. Put those offenses on the same field and the clock just runs. We expect a game that looks a lot like last season's 20-17 Army win: low scoring and decided by one possession. Air Force hasn't named a starting quarterback. Evan Medders is working back from turf toe, Kemper Hodges ran for 200 yards and four touchdowns against UConn, and freshman Howard Fisher IV started that game. The Falcons have barely thrown since Liam Szarka's season-ending injury no matter who's under center, and that quarterback question is the main risk to both picks.

Air Force vs. Army Predictions

• Pick #1: Under 43.5 (-107)
• Pick #2: Air Force +4 (-108)

PICK #1: Under 43.5 (-107)

None of the last five Air Force-Army games went past 37 points. Last season's was 20-17, and before that came 20-3, 23-3, 13-7 and a 21-14 overtime game. Air Force's game with Navy this season went the same way, 14-9, and the Falcons held Navy to 110 rushing yards on 30 carries.

Nobody here is in a hurry. Air Force leads the country with 37:13 of possession a game, and Army is third at 34:05. Against UConn, Air Force kept the ball for nearly 42 minutes, ran a 19-play drive that took 11:37 off the clock and didn't complete a pass. Every long drive is one fewer drive for the other side. And there's no quick-strike passing game to bail either team out: Air Force throws for 59.1 yards a game, last in the country, and Army for 71.1, one spot ahead.

Army's defense is the soft spot. It allows 25.5 points a game, and Memphis hung 49 on it last week, but Memphis threw for 371 yards to do it, and Air Force doesn't throw. The forecast in West Point calls for clouds, a low around 44, a west wind around 10 to 14 mph and a chance of showers.

The Under at -107 implies a 51.7% chance, and it's the popular side, with 79% of the bets and 76% of the money. A turnover deep in someone's own territory, or one long run that turns a field-goal drive into a touchdown, is how this one gets away.

PICK #2: Air Force +4 (-108)

Army's games come down to the end. Five of its seven games against FBS teams were decided by four points or fewer: losses to South Florida (28-24) and Louisiana Tech (31-29), and wins over Temple (21-17), Tulane (20-17) and Tulsa (38-35). In a game with this few possessions, four points goes a long way, and a three-point Army win still cashes the ticket.

Air Force has won four of its last five, and changing quarterbacks hasn't hurt the run game. Hodges' 200 yards against UConn made it four straight games of 114 or more rushing yards for an Air Force quarterback since Szarka went down, with Medders posting the first three. Army allows 152.4 rushing yards a game, which is a problem against the second-best rushing team in the country. Army coach Jeff Monken said this week that "year after year it just seems like it comes down to a final drive."

At -108, the implied chance is 51.9%. The pick assumes Air Force keeps playing the run-first offense it has used since Szarka's injury, whether Medders, Hodges or Fisher takes the snaps. Ball security is the bigger concern, and that ties back to who plays quarterback. Two fumbles by a backup quarterback factored heavily in the loss at Wyoming, Air Force's only defeat in its last six games, and Army won the two meetings before last season's by 17 and 20.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.