Warriors vs. Timberwolves Prediction, NBA Odds & Best Bets (10/28)

Fact checked at 9:05 AM ET, Oct 28, 2026

Odds as of 8:29 AM ET, Oct 28, 2026

Minnesota finds out tonight what it looks like without Anthony Edwards. Tipoff at Target Center is 8:00 PM ET. Edwards scored 45 points in the opener at Miami and 47 in his last game, an overtime loss at Cleveland. He is Out on the latest injury report with a right knee issue that needs an arthroscopic procedure, and reports have him missing several weeks. Donte DiVincenzo is out too. The Timberwolves are 3-1 on the strength of a defense that has allowed 105 points a game, third-fewest in the league through four games. Golden State is 1-3 and comes in off a 134-114 win at Denver, with rookie Yaxel Lendeborg putting up 31 points and 12 rebounds. Lendeborg is questionable with left foot inflammation. Jimmy Butler III, Moses Moody and Kristaps Porzingis are out for the Warriors, and none of the three has played this season.

We expect a low-scoring game that stays close. Minnesota's defense keeps Stephen Curry under his number, Lendeborg cleans up the misses for Golden State, and a Minnesota offense missing its 33-point scorer can't pull away. That one script covers all three picks.

The market has already reacted. Minnesota opened as a 5.5-point favorite and is down to -3.5, and the total is 228.5, a point above where it opened.

Warriors vs. Timberwolves Predictions

• Pick #1: Stephen Curry Under 24.5 Points (-119)
• Pick #2: Yaxel Lendeborg Over 7.5 Rebounds (+105)
• Pick #3: Warriors +3.5 (-110)

PICK #1: Stephen Curry Under 24.5 Points (-119)

Curry made all eight of his shots from the field at Denver and still finished with 24, half a point short of this line. The minutes matter most. He has scored 23, 24 and 24 in his three games, in 21, 30 and 27 minutes. He's averaging 26 minutes, down from 30.9 last season, and Golden State hasn't asked him to carry the offense for 35. He sat out the Phoenix game.

Minnesota's defense is the other half of this. It has given up 106 points to Miami, 93 to Orlando, 94 to Toronto and 127 to Cleveland in a game that went to overtime. Losing Edwards hurts Minnesota's scoring, not its defense, and neither Rudy Gobert nor Jaden McDaniels is on the injury report. A slower game means fewer possessions and fewer chances for a run of threes.

The Under at -119 implies 54.3%. Curry's longer track record argues the other way. He averaged 26.6 points last season, so 24.5 is below a normal night for him, and one hot quarter can clear it. Three games is a small sample. If Lendeborg sits, Curry may also take more shots. The Over is -107.

PICK #2: Yaxel Lendeborg Over 7.5 Rebounds (+105)

Nobody on the Warriors has played more minutes than Lendeborg. He has started all four games and logged 29 to 37 minutes in each. His rebounds go 3 against the Lakers, 13 against Memphis, 9 at Phoenix and 12 at Denver, so the opener is the only miss. Porzingis is away from the team and Butler and Moody are out, which leaves the frontcourt minutes to him. When Curry and Draymond Green sat at Phoenix, he played 36. Four games is a small sample, but it's the role he'll have tonight if he plays.

Plus money implies 48.8%. If this turns into the grinder we expect, there will be plenty of misses to chase.

His foot is the big risk. Lendeborg is questionable with left foot inflammation. After the Denver game he said he had stepped on his own foot and that the team's medical staff told him it should be nothing serious, but Golden State hasn't ruled him in or out. Most books void a player prop if the player doesn't play, but check your book's rules. A minutes limit would make the Over harder. Then there's Gobert, who grabbed 20 rebounds at Cleveland and has at least 9 in every game this season.

PICK #3: Warriors +3.5 (-110)

Edwards was averaging 33.3 points, and every Minnesota number this season, including 122 points a game, came with him on the floor. Take him out and this isn't the team that started 3-1. The line has dropped two points, from -5.5 to -3.5, and the money is on Golden State: 77% of the spread money on 57% of the bets. One public ratings model makes Minnesota a 3.8-point favorite, right on top of this number.

At -110 the implied probability is 52.4%. The Warriors have covered 3.5 in two of their four games. One of those covers was a three-point home loss to Memphis, which is the kind of close game we're expecting here.

Golden State hasn't earned much trust. The Warriors are 1-3. They lost by 22 to the Lakers in the opener and gave up 131 at Phoenix, and Minnesota's defense will make it hard for them to win outright. We are taking the points because we expect a close game, not a Warriors upset.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.