Thunder vs. Spurs Prediction, NBA Opening Night Odds & Best Bets (10/20)

Fact checked at 8:00 AM ET, Oct 20, 2026

Odds as of Oct 20, 7:57 AM ET

San Antonio won Game 7 of the Western Conference finals 111-103 in Oklahoma City on May 30, and the league handed the same two teams the last game of opening night. The Spurs show up with a different backcourt. Mitch Johnson said on Friday: "We're planning on starting that same crew." That crew is De'Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle and Dylan Harper together, with Devin Vassell at power forward and Victor Wembanyama at center. It started the last two preseason games, and Johnson said he wanted to open games with his five best players rather than hold one back for the bench. Harper spent most of his rookie year as the sixth man. Now he starts, and the ball goes with him.

Oklahoma City changed as well. The Thunder traded Lu Dort to Atlanta in July, after sending Aaron Wiggins to the Hawks and Isaiah Joe to the Pistons, and Cason Wallace is the projected starter next to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Jalen Williams is back. Injuries limited him to 33 regular-season games last season, and a hamstring strain cost him four games of the conference finals, Game 7 included. He scored 16, 16 and 18 in three preseason games. Chet Holmgren sat out the whole preseason with a quad contusion but isn't on the injury report.

San Antonio is a 1.5-point favorite and -118 on the moneyline. Oklahoma City opened at +110 and is down to -102. The total is 231.5. The Spurs are without Tobias Harris (left calf strain) and Jayden Quaintance (knee surgery), and the Thunder are missing Otega Oweh, Thomas Sorber and Nikola Topic. Tip-off is 9:30 PM ET at Frost Bank Center in San Antonio.

Thunder vs. Spurs Predictions

• Pick #1: Dylan Harper Over 15.5 Points (-118)
• Pick #2: Stephon Castle Under 6.5 Assists (-115)

PICK #1: Dylan Harper Over 15.5 Points (-118)

This one is about minutes. As a rookie last season Harper averaged 11.8 points in 22.6 minutes and started only four of his 69 games. When he did get a starter's workload, he scored like one: across the 18 games last season, playoffs included, in which he played at least 28 minutes, he cleared 15.5 points 11 times. In the Finals against New York he played 31 minutes a night and averaged 18.0.

The preseason pointed the same way. Harper started all four games he played and scored 16, 15, 9 and 19, which is 59 points in 87 minutes, and he hit 8 of 14 from three. His preseason minutes never went past 24. A regular-season starter's minutes should push him toward 30. "There's no reason for me to be hesitant," he said ahead of the opener.

The price is -118, a 54.1% implied chance. What could sink it is the defense across from him. Oklahoma City gave up 107.9 points a game last season, second fewest in the league, and Harper got past this number in only two of his 11 games against the Thunder last season, playing 25 minutes a game in those matchups. Dort is no longer on that roster.

PICK #2: Stephon Castle Under 6.5 Assists (-115)

Castle averaged 7.4 assists last regular season to lead the Spurs, and that is why the line is 6.5. That was a season in which Harper started only four games. When Harper's minutes went up in the playoffs, Castle's assists went down: 6.1 a game over 23 postseason games, with only seven of those games above 6.5.

In the preseason, with Harper starting every game he played, Castle finished with 3, 5, 3 and 5 assists. In the two games the full three-guard group started, he had 8 assists in 47 minutes. Wembanyama put the new setup simply: "I've got handlers all around me." With that many handlers, the assists get shared.

At -115 the Under implies 53.5%. Castle did top 6.5 in four of the seven conference finals games against Oklahoma City, so this matchup is no lock. Both picks depend on the same thing, Johnson keeping Harper in the starting five and running the offense through him, and both suffer if Johnson goes back to a bigger lineup early.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.