Texans vs. Jaguars Prediction, NFL Week 6 Odds & Best Bets (10/18)

Fact checked at 8:35 AM ET, Oct 18, 2026

Odds as of Oct 18, 7:38 AM ET

Houston arrives in London at 1-4, fresh off its first win of the season, a 26-3 rout of Tennessee. Jacksonville is 4-1 and has won three straight, most recently a 19-17 win over Philadelphia in London. The Jaguars defend the run as well as anyone: they allow 63.8 rushing yards per game, fewest in the league, and 14.0 points per game, second-fewest. Through the air they give up 277.2 passing yards per game, which ranks 30th of 32.

Houston can't lean on the ground game anyway. Running back David Montgomery (groin) is inactive, as is safety Jalen Pitre (shoulder). Marvin Harrison Jr., acquired from Arizona last week, makes his Texans debut. On the other side, Jacksonville has left tackle Anton Harrison on injured reserve, with Walker Little filling in. The Jaguars are the designated home team, but Wembley is neutral ground. They also played in London last week, while Houston flew over Thursday night on a trip the club says was delayed by travel problems.

Jacksonville is a 2.5-point favorite and the total is 42.5. We think the Jaguars take away Houston's run game, and the Texans throw and find yards against a secondary that has leaked them all season. All three picks are Houston passing-game Overs built on that one script.

Kickoff is Sunday at 9:30 AM ET at Wembley Stadium in London, on NFL Network.

Texans vs. Jaguars Predictions

• Pick #1: C.J. Stroud Over 252.5 Passing Yards (-112)
• Pick #2: Xavier Hutchinson Over 13.5 Receiving Yards (-117)
• Pick #3: Foster Moreau Over 6.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

PICK #1: C.J. Stroud Over 252.5 Passing Yards (-112)

Stroud has thrown for 274, 353, 167, 347 and 261 yards in his five starts. That's four of five over this number, and the one miss came in a 19-17 loss at Indianapolis. Now he gets the league's 30th-ranked pass defense with no Montgomery behind him and a defense that gives up only 63.8 rushing yards a game in front of him. Houston will throw because it has to, and it has a new target in Harrison.

The price of -112 works out to 52.8%, and we like his chances better than that. The risk is the pass rush. Josh Hines-Allen and Travon Walker can wreck drives, and a defense allowing 14.0 points a game won't make anything easy. A comfortable Houston lead that lets the Texans run out the clock would also cap his total, though that's hard to picture against this run defense with this backfield.

PICK #2: Xavier Hutchinson Over 13.5 Receiving Yards (-117)

This line is too low. Hutchinson has cleared it in all five games: 32 yards against Buffalo, 37 against Cincinnati, 51 at Indianapolis, 46 against Dallas and 65 at Tennessee. His worst game more than doubled 13.5.

The Dallas game matters most. Nico Collins returned that week and Hutchinson's snaps fell to 31%, and he still caught three passes for 46 yards. He has drawn between 15% and 24% of Houston's targets every week, so the role holds up even when the snap count moves.

Harrison is the worry. He joins the same receiver room, and nobody knows how many snaps he'll take in his first game. Still, Hutchinson has already produced through one cut in playing time, and two catches against this secondary should do it. At -117 you need him to get there 53.9% of the time.

PICK #3: Foster Moreau Over 6.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

One short catch clears this. Moreau has caught at least one pass in every game and two in four of them, going over 6.5 four times: 15 against Buffalo, 34 against Cincinnati, 7 at Indianapolis and 8 at Tennessee. The miss was a single 1-yard catch against Dallas. Fellow tight end Marlin Klein is inactive.

He's the second tight end behind Dalton Schultz, and his target share has bounced between about 4% and 16% depending on the week. A one-catch day for a couple of yards is how this loses, and Harrison could take some short looks too. But a Houston offense pushed into throwing against the league's best run defense should hit its tight ends underneath. The -114 price implies 53.3%, and his game log says he gets there more often than that.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.