Steelers vs. Buccaneers Prediction, NFL Week 6 Odds & Best Bets (10/18)

Fact checked at 8:35 AM ET, Oct 18, 2026

Odds as of Oct 18, 7:39 AM ET

Pittsburgh (3-2) comes in off a 34-22 home win over Indianapolis. Tampa Bay (1-4) finally won last time out, 24-16 at Dallas as a 9.5-point underdog, and has had ten days to prepare since that Thursday-night game. Baker Mayfield (right thumb) is out for a third straight week, so undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels makes his third start.

We're more interested in how Pittsburgh moves the ball. Tampa Bay is second in the NFL against the run at 72.8 rushing yards allowed per game and 18th against the pass at 234.6. The Steelers' offense already leans on Jaylen Warren, who leads the team in rushing yards (410) and receiving yards (230). DK Metcalf has 225 receiving yards, and 115 of those came in one game. Rookie Germie Bernard played 92% of the snaps last week and caught six of nine targets for 80 yards. Add a sunny afternoon around 77 to 78 degrees with a 15 to 16 mph northeast wind in the NWS hourly forecast, and we expect Aaron Rodgers to keep throwing underneath to his running back while Metcalf has another quiet day. Both picks come from that read.

The Steelers are 2.5-point favorites, and the total has dropped from 45.5 on Oct 6 to 38.5. Kickoff is Sunday at 1:00 PM ET at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, on CBS.

Steelers vs. Buccaneers Predictions

• Pick #1: DK Metcalf Under 51.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
• Pick #2: Jaylen Warren Over 29.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

PICK #1: DK Metcalf Under 51.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Take away one game at Cleveland and Metcalf hasn't reached this number. He went for 115 there. The other four weeks: 40 against Atlanta, 27 at New England, 31 against Cincinnati and 12 against Indianapolis, with no catch longer than 16 yards. He's on the field for 92% to 97% of the offensive snaps every week, so playing time isn't what's holding him down. Rodgers just spreads it around, and Bernard's 80-yard game gives him one more option.

Metcalf missed Friday's practice with an illness, but the Steelers took him off the injury report Saturday and the team says he will play. The price is -110, an implied 52.4%.

What could go wrong is volume. Roman Wilson (injured reserve) and Ben Skowronek are out, and tight end Pat Freiermuth is questionable after a calf injury put him on the report Saturday. If those targets all go to Metcalf, Cleveland showed how fast he can clear 51.5.

PICK #2: Jaylen Warren Over 29.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Warren has cleared 29.5 receiving yards in four of five games: 34 at New England, 49 against Cincinnati, 33 at Cleveland and 87 against Indianapolis, including an 80-yard touchdown catch. He missed in the opener with 27, when he played 37% of the snaps. He has played between 71% and 97% every week since and drawn four to six targets in every game. Tampa Bay gives up 72.8 rushing yards per game, so his easier yards should come through the air. At -110, he has to get there 52.4% of the time to break even.

The overs haven't all been comfortable. Two came in at 33 and 34, and one long play accounts for most of the 87. Rico Dowdle (toe) is questionable but practiced fully Thursday and Friday and is expected back after missing three games. In the two games Dowdle played, Warren finished with 27 and 34 receiving yards.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.