Saints vs. Giants Prediction, NFL Week 6 Odds & Best Bets (10/18)

Fact checked at 8:35 AM ET, Oct 18, 2026

Odds as of Oct 18, 7:39 AM ET

New Orleans comes to MetLife at 1-4. The Saints have lost three straight at home, most recently 23-13 to Minnesota, and their only win came on the road in Baltimore. They've also given up 30.2 points per game, second-most in the league. The Giants are 3-1-1, 3-0 at home, and haven't lost in the three games Jameis Winston has started since a knee injury ended Jaxson Dart's regular season. The market has gone the other way anyway. The Giants opened as 2.5-point favorites, and the consensus now has the Saints at -1.5. The total opened at 44.5 and sits between 45.5 and 46.5 depending on the book.

We aren't taking a side. Our angle is that both quarterbacks throw at their usual rate. The Saints haven't stopped anyone, and the Giants' secondary is thin, with safety Tyler Nubin and cornerback Colton Hood ruled out along with tight end Theo Johnson. Both Giants starting tackles, Andrew Thomas (groin) and Jermaine Eluemunor (calf), are questionable after missing two practices, and so is edge rusher Abdul Carter (calf), though NFL Network reports Thomas and Carter are expected to play. On the New Orleans side, Chris Olave (illness) and Alvin Kamara (back) are questionable but expected to play, per NFL Network, and linebackers Kaden Elliss and Anfernee Jennings are out. Tyler Shough has been playing with two broken bones in his non-throwing hand, though he practiced fully all week. Winston and Shough are expected to start.

Kickoff is Sunday at 1:00 PM ET on Fox. The forecast is sunny and in the mid-50s, with wind around 5 mph.

Saints vs. Giants Predictions

• Pick #1: Juwan Johnson Over 40.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
• Pick #2: Darnell Mooney Over 1.5 Receptions (-137)

PICK #1: Juwan Johnson Over 40.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

In a normal Saints game, Johnson clears 40.5 without much trouble. He's done it in four of five: 54 yards at Detroit, 66 at Baltimore, 53 against Las Vegas and 59 against Atlanta. He has played between 53% and 84% of the snaps every week and seen seven or eight targets in three of the five games. Olave played in all four of those games, so Johnson hasn't needed Olave to sit. If the illness does keep Olave out, though, his 54 targets through five games have to go somewhere.

At -115 the price implies 53.5%, and we like Johnson's chances better than that.

The worry is last week. Against Minnesota, the whole Saints passing game stalled: Shough threw for 96 yards on 25 attempts, and Johnson caught four passes for 16 yards. The hand matters here. Asked about it on Oct. 12, his coach said only that it "got banged two weeks ago." So Shough was already hurt going into the Minnesota game, and that dud could be a sign of what's ahead rather than a one-off. The Giants have also held opponents to 209.6 passing yards per game, seventh-fewest in the league, although Nubin and Hood won't be out there this time.

PICK #2: Darnell Mooney Over 1.5 Receptions (-137)

Mooney doesn't get many looks in this offense. He does get enough of them to clear 1.5 most weeks. Winston took over on the opening drive of the Week 2 loss to the Rams, and Mooney has caught exactly two passes in three of the four games since: two at the Rams, two against Tennessee and two at Washington. The miss was a catchless day against Arizona on two targets. He also had two catches in Week 1 with Dart at quarterback, but that game says little about Winston's offense.

He's on the field plenty, between 44% and 72% of the offensive snaps every week. Last week at Washington he drew seven targets, his most of the season, while Winston threw 54 passes for 326 yards. A neck injury limited him Wednesday, but he practiced fully Thursday and Friday and carries no game status. Theo Johnson's absence also takes away a tight end who drew three targets last week.

There's no hiding the thin margin. Mooney saw two or three targets in three of the four games since Winston took over, so one drop or tipped ball leaves him at one catch, and -137 implies 57.8%. If Thomas and Eluemunor can't go, more of Winston's quick throws could go to Malik Nabers and Isaiah Likely, who combined for 33 targets last week, and Malachi Fields takes a share of the same short work. Both of our picks need the same game: two offenses throwing the way they usually do.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.