Red Sox vs. Yankees Prediction, MLB Wild Card Game 2 Odds & Best Bets (9/30)

Fact checked at 9:09 AM ET, Sep 30, 2026

Odds as of Sep 30, 8:12 AM ET

The Yankees are one win from the Division Series. New York (93-68), the AL's fourth seed, beat fifth-seeded Boston (87-75) 9-0 in Tuesday's opener of the best-of-three Wild Card Series, so the Red Sox face elimination in Game 2. Cam Schlittler struck out 10 over 6 1/3 scoreless innings, Ben Rice went 4-for-5 with two homers and six RBIs, and Boston managed three hits. It may have lost Roman Anthony too. He left Game 1 with discomfort in his right hand and wrist, the same hand that cost him nearly four months this season, and his Game 2 status is unclear.

Sonny Gray (2.72 ERA) starts for Boston against Max Fried (2.80), as both clubs announced. Giancarlo Stanton and Trent Grisham came off the injured list Tuesday. Stanton didn't play in Game 1, and Grisham had one plate appearance off the bench. Boston activated Garrett Crochet as a bullpen option; he didn't pitch Tuesday and hasn't pitched in a game since April 25. Aaron Judge (right calf strain) isn't on the Wild Card roster.

The Yankees are -141 on the moneyline after opening around -130 late Tuesday night, with Boston +118. Boston +1.5 on the run line is -192, down from about -215 at the open, and the total has sat at 6.5 since it opened. First pitch is Wednesday at 8:00 PM ET at Yankee Stadium on NBC/Peacock.

Red Sox vs. Yankees Predictions

• Pick #1: Under 6.5 (-101)
• Pick #2: Adley Rutschman Over 0.5 Hits (-195)
• Pick #3: George Lombard Jr. Over 0.5 Hits (-153)

PICK #1: Under 6.5 (-101)

Gray and Fried are both rested, both carry ERAs under 3.00, and both have one of the league's stingiest staffs behind them.

Gray finished the regular season 18-5 with a 2.72 ERA over 169 innings, a .236 batting average against and a 1.15 WHIP. Fried's 2.80 ERA came over 112 2/3 innings, with hitters batting .201 against him and only four home runs allowed. Gray last pitched Sept. 23 and Fried Sept. 22, so each has at least six days' rest. Neither club has announced a pitch limit. Fried was held to 63 pitches against Boston on Aug. 29 in his first start back from a left elbow bone bruise, and he has thrown 72, 80, 88 and 97 in the four starts since.

New York allowed 601 runs in 161 games, second fewest in the majors. Boston allowed 611 in 162, third fewest. Only the Dodgers allowed fewer, and per game the order holds. Boston's bats are the soft spot in this game: 689 runs, 23rd, and last in the majors in runs per game, batting average and OPS in September. The late innings look good for the Under as well. Boston didn't use Aroldis Chapman, Garrett Whitlock or Crochet in Game 1, and New York didn't need closer David Bednar (that comes from the box score, not from anything either club has said about availability). The National Weather Service has upper 60s at first pitch, mostly cloudy skies, a light south wind around 5 mph and no rain, nothing that pushes scoring either way.

At -101 in the 8:12 AM ET consensus, the price implies 50.2%, basically a coin flip. New York's lineup is what could beat it. The Yankees scored 739 runs (eighth per game), and each of their last five games went over the closing total, Game 1's 9-0 included. Boston's relievers gave up eight of those nine runs, and the five who pitched Tuesday would be working back-to-back nights. The total hasn't moved off 6.5, though the Under has gone from plus money to about even at some books, and bets and money are split evenly.

PICK #2: Adley Rutschman Over 0.5 Hits (-195)

On a night Boston managed three hits, one of them was Rutschman's first-inning single off Schlittler. He has a hit in four of his last five starts, 5-for-18 over those games. He caught four of them, was the designated hitter in the other and batted second or third in four.

The spot in the order should hold. RotoWire's expected Game 2 lineup has him third, behind Jahmai Jones and Ceddanne Rafaela; he hit second in Game 1. If Anthony sits, Jones is projected to lead off, and Rutschman still keeps a top-three spot and the plate appearances that come with it. Boston hasn't posted its lineup, so this pick assumes he starts there.

Fried makes it harder. He held hitters to a .201 average this season and allowed Boston one run over 11 2/3 innings in two starts this year, and a lefty on the mound is one reason Boston's Game 2 lineup will look different. Rutschman's one hitless game in the stretch was an 0-for-4 against Cleveland on Sept. 24. And -195 isn't cheap for a single; it implies 66.1%.

One hit doesn't need runs, so this sits fine next to the Under: a 3-2 game has room for it. His Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (+107) pays more, but he reached it in only two of his last five starts.

PICK #3: George Lombard Jr. Over 0.5 Hits (-153)

Lombard went 3-for-4 with two runs in Game 1. The Yankees' shortstop has started five of New York's last six games and has a hit in four of his last five starts, seven hits in 21 at-bats, all at short. Before Tuesday came an 0-for-4 against Baltimore on Sept. 25, 2-for-4 against Tampa Bay on Sept. 24 and a hit in each of the two Rays games before that.

He has hit anywhere from second to seventh, most often fifth, and RotoWire's expected lineup has him fifth against Gray. New York hasn't posted its lineup, so this pick assumes he starts. That's a 60.5% implied chance at -153.

Gray is a different look from Tuesday. Two of Lombard's three hits came off a left-hander, Payton Tolle, and Gray is a right-hander with a .236 average against and 20 quality starts, the most on Boston's staff. A drop to seventh, where he hit on Sept. 22, would cost him plate appearances. The lineup around him changes against a righty too, with Luis García Jr., Jazz Chisholm Jr., Grisham and Ryan McMahon expected in.

Spencer Jones has also hit in four of his last five starts, and Jones Over 0.5 Hits (-146) is the alternative. Lombard's Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-186) makes the same case at a shorter price. Like the Rutschman pick, this needs one hit and can win in a low-scoring game.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.