Ravens vs. Cowboys Prediction, NFL Week 3 Odds & Best Bets (9/27)

Fact checked at 7:45 AM ET, Sep 27, 2026

Odds as of Sep 27, 7:30 AM ET

The Ravens and Cowboys are both 1-1, and they settle it far from either home: Maracanã Stadium in Rio de Janeiro, a neutral site where Dallas is the designated home team but neither side has its own crowd or building. Baltimore opened with a 41-23 win at Indianapolis, then took a 24-17 loss at home to New Orleans as an 8.5-point favorite. Dallas went the other way, a 28-20 loss at the Giants followed by a 37-20 win over Washington in which Dak Prescott threw four touchdown passes. The field has been its own storyline. League and players' union experts have been in Brazil for days to watch the surface, and the league said Saturday it has made more improvements and that "things check out."

The market has moved toward Baltimore and toward points. The Ravens opened as 2.5-point favorites and the consensus now has them at -3.5, with the moneyline going from -135 to a range of -166 to -185 (most books are between -175 and -185), and bettors have piled on: 78% of the moneyline bets and 87% of the money are on Baltimore. The total opened at 50.5 and sits at 53.5. Injuries shape both sides. Dallas is without four defenders, including cornerback Cobie Durant, and put safety P.J. Locke on injured reserve Saturday with a torn plantar fascia, while Baltimore plays without left tackle Ronnie Stanley and lists receiver Zay Flowers as questionable. The Ravens will work Flowers out before the game, and ESPN's Adam Schefter reported Sunday morning that the team does not sound as if it is counting on him.

Kickoff is Sunday at 4:25 PM ET at Maracanã Stadium in Rio de Janeiro, on CBS. The Met Office forecast for the 5:25 PM local kickoff is overcast and about 79 degrees, with an 8 mph breeze and a 10% rain chance that climbs through the evening, and the local service Climatempo has light showers possible from about 6 PM.

Ravens vs. Cowboys Predictions

• Pick #1: Javonte Williams Under 57.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
• Pick #2: Over 53.5 (-108)
• Pick #3: Dak Prescott Over 12.5 Rushing Yards (-109)

PICK #1: Javonte Williams Under 57.5 Rushing Yards (-114)

Williams has the Dallas backfield to himself and still hasn't come close to this number, and the market has been drifting toward the Under: the consensus line is down to 56.5, so 57.5 (DraftKings, Hard Rock) or the 59.5 at BetRivers and theScore is worth shopping for.

He carried 12 times for 41 yards and a touchdown in the Week 1 loss to the Giants, then 12 times for 30 yards against Washington: 71 yards on 24 carries, 3.0 per carry. He played 71% and 80% of the offensive snaps and is the clear lead back, and at that workload he would need to improve sharply on 3.0 yards per carry to reach 57.5. A bigger workload is the other way this loses, and it hasn't come yet: even the Week 2 win, in which Dallas never trailed, only got him 12 carries and 30 yards.

Then there is the defense he's running into. Baltimore has allowed 83.5 rushing yards per game, fifth fewest in the league, and the front should be stronger on Sunday. Defensive tackle Nnamdi Madubuike missed the first two games with a neck injury and is slated to make his season debut, and linebacker Teddye Buchanan, out the first two weeks with a knee injury, carries no game status this week.

You're paying -114 for that, which works out to a 53.3% implied chance. What beats it is one long run. At 12 carries a game, a single breakaway can do most of the work, and if Dallas builds a lead, extra carries late could push him toward the line. Williams also catches passes (nine targets in two games), but that yardage doesn't count here. This pairs with the Over, and both can win the way Dallas's Week 2 did: 37 points, 279 passing yards and four touchdown passes from Prescott, and 30 rushing yards from Williams.

PICK #2: Over 53.5 (-108)

Dallas ruled out four defenders for a game against Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry, and the total has climbed three points since it opened.

Durant has a hamstring injury after playing 72% of the defensive snaps in Week 1 and 52% in Week 2 before getting hurt. Safeties Malik Hooker and P.J. Locke (now on injured reserve) and linebacker DeMarvion Overshown are also out, and Dallas elevated cornerback Reddy Steward from the practice squad Saturday. Hooker and Overshown missed Week 2 as well, but losing Durant is new, and it leaves a thin secondary against an offense that scored 41 at Indianapolis, where Jackson threw for 324 yards and Henry ran for 144 and three touchdowns.

Neither defense has been hard to score on. Baltimore allows 23.5 points per game and Dallas 24, while the offenses average 29.0 and 28.5. The Dallas passing game is humming, too: Prescott completed 26 of 31 passes against Washington, and CeeDee Lamb caught eight for 153 yards and two scores.

The market has been moving this direction since the number went up. The total opened at 50.5, the consensus is 53.5 at -108, and FanDuel still had 52.5 on Saturday evening, worth a look before you bet. Bettors lean the same way, with 64% of the bets and 64% of the money on the Over. At -108 the break-even rate is 51.9%. The cost of the move is the number itself: 53.5 needs three more points than the opener did, which is why FanDuel's 52.5 matters.

Baltimore's own absences are the main worry. Stanley (toe) played every snap in Week 1 and 79% of them in Week 2, and Flowers (hamstring), who had five catches for 150 yards and a touchdown in the opener before missing Week 2, is questionable, faces a pregame workout, and would be on a pitch count if he plays, per ESPN. Inactives come about 90 minutes before kickoff. Baltimore's loss to New Orleans stayed under 46.5, and Dallas's loss to the Giants only crept over 47.5 by a half point, so neither offense has been immune to a quiet day. The Williams Under fits with this pick: a Dallas day built on Prescott's arm is how both win.

PICK #3: Dak Prescott Over 12.5 Rushing Yards (-109)

Prescott doesn't need many carries to clear this line, and he has cleared it in both games.

He ran twice for 14 yards against the Giants and four times for 26 against Washington, playing every offensive snap in both. Nothing on the Dallas side points to a different role on Sunday: all four players the Cowboys ruled out are defenders, and no Dallas offensive player is on the Week 3 injury report. Baltimore's pass rush is getting healthier, too. Trey Hendrickson got his first sack as a Raven in Week 2 while playing with a broken finger in a cast, practiced in full Friday and carries no game designation, and Madubuike returns inside. More pressure can mean more scrambles, though it can also mean sacks and throwaways, so this is the speculative part of the case.

The margins are thin. His Week 1 game cleared the line by a yard and a half, on two carries, and two games is a short history, so a day with one run or none loses. Baltimore allows 83.5 rushing yards per game, the same front the Williams Under leans on. Both can win because Prescott needs only a couple of runs of his own, not the handoffs that carry Williams's number.

The price has improved since the week began: theScore is at -105, DraftKings -109 and most other books -110 to -115, and -109 works out to a 52.2% implied chance, close to a coin flip for a prop he has cleared twice. We still prefer it to the other Dallas angles. His touchdown passes (Over 1.5 at about -150) and a Lamb touchdown (+120 at Fanatics, +110 to +115 elsewhere) would both lean on the same Dallas scoring the Over already needs, so the rushing number is the cleaner way to back him. If you'd rather back Dallas outright, Cowboys Moneyline (+150) is the alternative.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.