Rams vs. Broncos Prediction, NFL Week 3 SNF Odds & Best Bets (9/27)

Fact checked at 7:45 AM ET, Sep 27, 2026

Odds as of Sep 27, 7:30 AM ET

Two 1-1 teams meet on Sunday night, and both are 0-1 in their divisions. The Rams opened with a 27-7 loss to the 49ers in Melbourne, Australia, then beat the Giants 28-6 on Monday night, when Matthew Stafford threw for 327 yards and four touchdowns and Davante Adams caught eight passes for 195 yards and two scores. Denver lost 31-10 at Kansas City before beating Jacksonville 20-13 at home.

The question hanging over the Rams is who catches the ball. Puka Nacua is doubtful with a hip injury after missing Week 2, and the Rams are targeting a Week 4 return, which leaves Adams and tight end Terrance Ferguson as Stafford's main targets again. Tight end Colby Parkinson is questionable with a knee injury after sitting out practice all week. Los Angeles also comes in on a short week after that Monday game.

The market has drifted toward Denver. The Rams opened around -2.5 to -3 depending on the book and still sit at -2.5 on the consensus line, with Denver +2.5 at -115, but five of the nine books on the major boards are at -1.5. The moneyline is Rams -130 and Broncos +110, and the total has come down from 45.5 to about 44 (43.5 to 44.5 depending on the book). Kickoff is Sunday at 8:20 PM ET at Empower Field at Mile High in Denver, on NBC. The National Weather Service has about 78 degrees at kickoff with increasing clouds, a south wind under 10 mph and a slight chance of a shower in the early evening.

Rams vs. Broncos Predictions

• Pick #1: Courtland Sutton Under 36.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
• Pick #2: Broncos +2.5 (-115)
• Pick #3: Kyren Williams Anytime Touchdown (-113)

PICK #1: Courtland Sutton Under 36.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Sutton is on the field. The ball has been going to someone else.

At Kansas City he caught 2 passes for 11 yards on 5 targets, and against Jacksonville he caught 3 for 25 yards on 4 targets, playing 76% and then 73% of the offensive snaps. The volume went elsewhere in Week 2: Jaylen Waddle drew 10 targets and caught 8 of them for 138 yards while Bo Nix threw for 288. So Sutton has stayed under this number in both games, including the one where Denver's passing game worked.

The matchup points the same way. The Rams have allowed 168 passing yards per game, third-fewest in the league by NFL.com's count, in games against San Francisco and New York. Nix threw for 131 yards in his other start, at Kansas City, so Denver's passing game has already had one quiet night this season. That Rams number comes with a caveat: Myles Garrett is on injured reserve after knee surgery and already sat out the Giants game, and safety Kam Kinchens (hamstring) is doubtful after missing practice all week.

Two games is a thin record, and the Rams' number includes a Giants game in which quarterback Jaxson Dart was injured. Denver's own lineup is shifting, too: RJ Harvey returns after missing Week 2, Jonah Coleman (ankle) went on injured reserve Saturday and Marvin Mims Jr. (foot) is questionable, so last week's target distribution may not hold. A 36.5-yard line can also fall to one catch down the field, and Sutton's snap share means the chances will be there. The line has dropped five yards since it opened, from 41.5 to 36.5, and DraftKings and Fanatics have already cut it to 35.5, so take 36.5 where it lasts (FanDuel, Caesars, BetMGM, Hard Rock). At -115 the implied chance is 53.5%. If you'd rather count catches, Sutton Under 3.5 receptions (-136) has also stayed under in both games, with 2 and 3. This pick and the Denver side below can both win: the Broncos beat Jacksonville by seven with Sutton held to 25 yards, and Waddle did most of the damage.

PICK #2: Broncos +2.5 (-115)

The money on Denver is bigger than the ticket count, and the line has moved the same way.

On the spread, 65% of the money is on the Broncos from 54% of the bets, which points to larger average stakes on the home underdog. The line opened at Denver +2.5 or +3 depending on the book and has come in since, and the moneyline sits at Rams -130, Broncos +110. Denver +2.5 at -115 is a 53.5% break-even rate, and the 2.5 is only still posted at DraftKings, Caesars, bet365 and Hard Rock (Hard Rock at -110). The Rams come in on a short week after the Monday night win, with Nacua doubtful after missing Week 2, while Denver is coming off a Sunday home game.

Bo Nix Over 0.5 interceptions (-120), with an interception in each of his two games, and Under 44 (-110) were the other options, but each overlaps more with the low-scoring script behind the Sutton Under than the spread does. Denver can cover in a shootout, so we went with the points.

The move has a cost. Denver is no longer getting the full 3, so a Rams win by a field goal now beats this ticket, and more than half the major books are already down to +1.5, so the 2.5 may not last. Denver's offense has scored 15 points per game, tied for 27th, against a Rams defense allowing 16.5, tied for eighth-fewest, which leaves little room if the Rams' offense looks like it did against the Giants. Most moneyline tickets, 75%, are on the Rams. And Nacua is doubtful rather than ruled out, with inactives due about 90 minutes before kickoff. If he plays, the Rams' passing game gets its top receiver back and this case gets weaker.

PICK #3: Kyren Williams Anytime Touchdown (-113)

Williams has scored in both games, once on the ground and once through the air, and a back who scores both ways has more than one path to the end zone.

Against San Francisco he ran 11 times for 41 yards and scored the Rams' only touchdown in the 27-7 loss. Against the Giants he ran 12 times for 85 yards and added 2 catches for 12 yards, one of them a touchdown. He played 64% and then 55% of the offensive snaps.

Stafford Over 0.5 interceptions (-105), with one in each game, was the other Rams option, but a Stafford interception would help Denver cover, so those two share game-script risk. The touchdown doesn't depend on a turnover either way. Williams Over 12.5 receiving yards (-115), which he cleared with 24 yards in Week 1 but would have missed by a half yard with his 12 against the Giants now that the line has moved up, and Stafford Under 0.5 rushing yards (-155) were close behind and are the alternatives.

The split backfield is what could sink this. Blake Corum ran 10 times for 54 yards in Week 1 and 12 times for 79 in Week 2, so the two backs have nearly split the carries, and Corum can take goal-line carries away from Williams. Two games is a short look, too, and -113 works out to a 53.1% implied chance; DraftKings and FanDuel have -110, Fanatics and theScore -105, BetMGM -125. The touchdown and Denver +2.5 can both win: a Williams score fits a Denver win or a Rams win by two or fewer.

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