Pacers vs. Mavericks Prediction, NBA Odds & Best Bets (11/9)

Fact checked at 9:41 AM ET, Nov 9, 2026

Odds as of 8:31 AM ET, Nov 9, 2026

Dallas (6-4) hosts Indiana (3-7) at 8:00 PM ET at American Airlines Center, and the first thing to know is how little Indiana scores without Tyrese Haliburton. He's out again with a left hamstring strain. Indiana is 1-5 without him and has averaged 106.2 points in those six games. T.J. McConnell played nine minutes in his season debut two nights ago and is now questionable with a right hamstring strain, while Johnny Furphy and Ben Sheppard are out. That debut came in a loss to Denver in Mexico City, and Indiana flew to Dallas from there.

Dallas is on the second night of a back-to-back, though last night's 130-93 win over Brooklyn was decided early enough that Cooper Flagg played 28 minutes and Kyrie Irving 29. We expect Dallas to pull away again, with Daniel Gafford protecting the rim against a short-handed offense and a comfortable lead sparing Flagg a 40-minute, 30-point night.

Pacers vs. Mavericks Predictions

• Pick #1: Daniel Gafford Over 1.5 Blocks (+134)
• Pick #2: Dallas -3.5 (-104)
• Pick #3: Cooper Flagg Under 26.5 Points (-112)

PICK #1: Daniel Gafford Over 1.5 Blocks (+134)

Gafford has blocked at least two shots in nine of his 10 games this season and averages 2.0 a game. His only miss was a one-block night against Sacramento. A +134 price implies a 42.7% chance, which badly undersells that record.

Dereck Lively II hasn't played this season because of a foot injury, and Gafford has started at center in each of Dallas's last five games and is the projected starter again tonight.

Watch his minutes. He played 18, 18 and 19 in his last three games, down from 26 and 29 before that, and the Under sits at -179. Yet he blocked two, two and three shots in those short nights, the three coming in 19 minutes of last night's rout. So the blowout script we're backing hasn't hurt him. Foul trouble would.

PICK #2: Dallas -3.5 (-104)

Every Dallas win this season has come by four points or more: 16 at Indiana, 4 at Miami, 24 against Oklahoma City, 5 against Houston, 12 against Utah and 37 against Brooklyn. Each of those wins would have covered tonight's number, and -104 implies 51.0%.

Indiana gives Dallas good reasons to win. Dallas allows 109.1 points a game, and Indiana has scored more than that only once in six games without Haliburton. Dallas also won the first meeting 121-105 in Indianapolis, with Flagg playing just 17 minutes before a shoulder injury kept him out of the second half. Irving scored 24 that night. Indiana is 0-4 at home and 3-2 on the road, so travel alone doesn't explain its record, but a trip in from Mexico City is no help to a roster this thin.

The schedule is the danger. Back-to-backs tend to bite late, and Dallas has already lost at home to Sacramento by 15 this season. Indiana's best recent result came on the road, 107-103 at Memphis last week. About two-thirds of the spread bets are on Dallas, so this is the popular side.

PICK #3: Cooper Flagg Under 26.5 Points (-112)

This pick follows from the spread. Dallas has won three games by double digits with Flagg playing the whole night, and he scored 26, 21 and 25 in those games while playing 28 to 33 minutes. When Dallas pulls away, he rests.

He averages 24.0 points and has gone over 26.5 in three of his nine games. Two of those came in tight wins, five points over Houston and four at Miami, when he played 39 and 40 minutes. Irving takes some of the load at 21.4 a game. Flagg has also made only 11 of 42 threes, so most of his scoring comes inside the arc and at the line. At -112, the Under implies 52.8%.

A close game is what beats this. If Indiana hangs around, Flagg plays 40 minutes and the ball finds him late, like it did against Houston. He also scored 32 in a loss at Houston, so a blowout the wrong way can sink it too.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.