Nuggets vs. Rockets Prediction, NBA Odds & Best Bets (11/9)

Fact checked at 9:40 AM ET, Nov 9, 2026

Odds as of 8:31 AM ET, Nov 9, 2026

Denver (5-3) visits Houston (7-3) at 8:30 PM ET at Toyota Center, and the Nuggets get there on a schedule nobody would pick. They beat Indiana 114-102 in Mexico City two nights ago. Then problems with the team plane kept them at the airport for hours and sent them back to their hotel around dawn, and they didn't get out of Mexico until the next afternoon. Denver also listed all five starters and sixth man DeMar DeRozan as questionable: Nikola Jokic (right elbow sprain), Jamal Murray (left shin contusion), Christian Braun (left calf contusion and illness), DeRozan (low back spasms), and Aaron Gordon and Cameron Johnson (lower-body injury management). Julian Strawther is out with a left knee sprain. All six are still questionable on the latest league injury report. Houston is without centers Steven Adams and Clint Capela.

The market has moved hard toward Houston. The Rockets opened as 4.5-point favorites with a total of 222.5. Now they lay 8.5, Denver is +260 to win outright, and the total sits at 217.5.

We think Houston's home defense controls a slower, lower-scoring game against a Denver team that is worn down no matter who suits up. If the Nuggets rest their stars, the spread and the Under get easier. If Jokic plays, expect a quieter night than his line.

Nuggets vs. Rockets Predictions

• Pick #1: Rockets -8.5 (-115)
• Pick #2: Nikola Jokic Under 26.5 Points (-122)
• Pick #3: Under 217.5 (-110)

PICK #1: Rockets -8.5 (-115)

Houston has been a different team at home. Four of its five home games were wins by 10 or more: 128-110 over Dallas, 120-110 over Atlanta, 119-98 over Oklahoma City and 109-93 over Boston. The one miss was a 117-107 loss to Minnesota. The Rockets allow 107.0 points a game, tied for fifth-fewest in the league. Denver allows 113.1, which ranks 14th.

Both teams last played two nights ago. Houston flew home after a 102-99 loss at Phoenix, while Denver spent most of the next day trying to leave Mexico. The spread at -115 implies a 53.5% chance, and the bigger bets are on the Rockets: Houston has 47% of the spread money on 36% of the bets.

A healthy Denver is the problem. If Jokic and Murray play and look like themselves, 8.5 is a lot to lay against a team that has won three straight away from home, at New Orleans, at Phoenix and against Indiana in Mexico City. Houston has also lost two in a row, and without Adams and Capela it is thin inside, which matters most against Jokic. Still, every version of tonight's Denver lineup is tired, and a Houston team that has won home games by 18, 10, 21 and 16 has the kind of margin this pick needs.

PICK #2: Nikola Jokic Under 26.5 Points (-122)

Jokic hasn't been a 27-point scorer this season. He's averaging 22.9 points and has stayed under 26.5 in six of his eight games. Away from Denver the numbers drop further: 13 at Oklahoma City, 21 at New Orleans, 18 at Phoenix and 19 against Indiana in Mexico City. His shot hasn't been there. He is 8 of 35 from three, and he went 7 of 20 from the field in that last game. Now he has a right elbow sprain on top of the trip.

This line fits last season's Jokic, who averaged 27.7 points, better than the one on the floor now. The Under at -122 implies a 55.0% chance, and we'll pay that.

He can still get there. He scored 32 against Toronto and 35 in an overtime game against New Orleans, both at home. The bet needs him to play. If he is ruled out, it is void at most sportsbooks.

PICK #3: Under 217.5 (-110)

Where Denver plays has mattered a lot. All four of its home games went over this number, at 276, 248, 228 and 237 total points. Away from Denver, three of four stayed under: 180 at Oklahoma City, 195 at New Orleans and 216 in Mexico City, with 247 at Phoenix the exception. The Nuggets average 123.3 points at home and 107.3 away from it. That's only four road games, but tonight Denver arrives tired and possibly short-handed.

Houston allows 105.6 points a game at home, and its last two home wins held Oklahoma City to 98 and Boston to 93. Most bettors want points, with 75% of the bets on the Over, but the Under has drawn 42% of the money on 24% of the bets. At -110 it implies 52.4%.

The full-season record cuts the other way. Only 6 of the two teams' 18 games have stayed under 217.5, and Houston scores 116.0 a game. If Denver's reserves push the pace and both teams start trading baskets, this can get away from the Under.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.