Nuggets vs. Pelicans Prediction, NBA Odds & Best Bets (10/28)

Fact checked at 9:05 AM ET, Oct 28, 2026

Odds as of 8:29 AM ET, Oct 28, 2026

New Orleans is 0-3, and it has been close every time: 123-120 at home to Indiana, 120-119 in Utah and 141-135 in overtime in Denver. That last one stung. The Pelicans led by 23 on the second night of a back-to-back before Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray dragged the Nuggets back. Denver is 1-2, coming off a 134-114 home loss to Golden State, and its other game was a 96-84 loss in Oklahoma City. Tipoff is 8:00 PM ET at Smoothie King Center.

We think the Pelicans' offense keeps this one close. New Orleans is the rested team this time, Denver is short on bodies again, and a high-scoring game decided by a few points runs through Dejounte Murray and Derik Queen. That's the game all three picks are built on.

Cameron Johnson is doubtful with a right ankle sprain. He played 11 minutes in Oklahoma City and has missed the two games since. Julian Strawther (left knee), Spencer Jones (hamstring) and Alpha Diallo (personal reasons) are out. New Orleans is without center Yves Missi (left knee), and Jordan Poole is probable with an illness.

Denver opened as a 5.5-point favorite, and the number has moved between 4.5 and 5.5 since. The total is 241.5, up from 239.5. The bigger bets on the spread are on New Orleans: 92% of the spread money is on the Pelicans, from 61% of the bets.

Nuggets vs. Pelicans Predictions

• Pick #1: Pelicans +4.5 (-105)
• Pick #2: Dejounte Murray Over 17.5 Points (-107)
• Pick #3: Derik Queen Over 11.5 Points (-102)

PICK #1: Pelicans +4.5 (-105)

In the last meeting the Nuggets closed as 11.5-point favorites at home against this team and won by six in overtime. Now they're laying 4.5 on the road, with Johnson doubtful and Strawther out, and they've failed to cover in all three of their games. New Orleans has two covers and a push.

The Pelicans can score. They're averaging 124.7 points, third in the league over three games, and they've lost by 3, 1 and 6. In Denver they put up 38 in the first quarter and 108 through three, a night after playing in Utah. They haven't played since. Denver has, and it lost by 20 at home. That leaves a lot of the load on Jokic and Murray again, and most of the spread money is on New Orleans.

-105 implies a 51.2% chance, and the bet is settled on the full game with overtime included.

Defense is the worry. New Orleans has allowed 128 points a game, 29th in the league, though three games is not much to go on either way. Denver got 42 from Murray and a 35-point triple-double from Jokic in that game, and those two could do it again. We need a close game here, not an upset.

PICK #2: Dejounte Murray Over 17.5 Points (-107)

Murray is getting the minutes. He has started all three games at the point and played 34, 30 and 35, and he's taking 17 shots a night. He scored 23 against Indiana, 16 in Utah and 22 in Denver, where he went 9-of-18 with six rebounds and six assists.

The line sits right on his recent averages: 16.7 points in 27.8 minutes over 14 games last season, and 17.5 in 31 games the season before. He's playing about five more minutes a night now, against a Denver defense that has allowed 121.7 points per game, 23rd in the league over three games.

He's cleared 17.5 in two of his three games. The miss was 16 points in 30 minutes in Utah, the night Zion Williamson scored 23. At -107, the implied probability is 51.7%.

What could go wrong is the shot share. Trey Murphy III (26 in Denver) and Williamson are first in line for touches, and Poole, probable with an illness, is one more ball-handler. If the game gets out of hand early, Murray's minutes go down.

PICK #3: Derik Queen Over 11.5 Points (-102)

Missi started the first two games and left the Utah game after nine minutes with the knee injury. Queen's role has grown since. He played 29 minutes that night and scored 12 on 4-of-9 shooting and 3-of-4 at the line, with seven rebounds, two steals and two blocks. In Denver he had 17 points on 6-of-10 shooting with eight rebounds in 25 minutes off the bench. His opener against Indiana, with Missi healthy, was 10 points in 18 minutes.

Missi is out again on the latest injury report. DeAndre Jordan started at center in Denver and played 20 minutes, which leaves most of the remaining center minutes to Queen. As a rookie last season he averaged 11.7 points in 25.0 minutes over 81 games, so this is the role he scored in. Denver is thin up front too, with Johnson doubtful and Jones out.

Both of his games over 11.5 this season came after Missi went down. The Over is -102, which implies 50.5%.

Minutes are the catch. Queen hasn't started a game this season, and if New Orleans goes small or Jordan plays well, he could end up closer to the 18 minutes he played against Indiana.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.