Nuggets vs. Pacers Prediction, NBA Odds & Best Bets (11/7)

Fact checked at 9:03 AM ET, Nov 7, 2026

Odds as of 8:07 AM ET, Nov 7, 2026

Denver (4-3) and Indiana (3-6) meet at 5:00 PM ET at Arena CDMX in Mexico City, a neutral-site regular-season game. Tyrese Haliburton is out again with a left hamstring strain, and the Pacers are 1-4 without him this season. Without Haliburton, Indiana's offense should miss plenty of shots. Jamal Murray should be there to collect the rebounds, and Nikola Jokic should be running Denver's offense as its passer. Both picks need Denver's two stars on the floor for their usual minutes.

Indiana's list on the latest injury report is long. Haliburton, Ben Sheppard and Johnny Furphy are out, and Kelly Oubre Jr. (left calf) and T.J. McConnell (right hamstring) are questionable, though Oubre has said he will play. Denver has DeMar DeRozan probable and Julian Strawther out. Murray and Jokic are projected to start. The Nuggets are 7.5-point favorites, and the total is 229.5, with 89% of the money on the Under from 62% of the bets.

Nuggets vs. Pacers Predictions

• Pick #1: Jamal Murray Over 4.5 Rebounds (-103)
• Pick #2: Nikola Jokic Over 9.5 Assists (-105)

PICK #1: Jamal Murray Over 4.5 Rebounds (-103)

Murray is averaging a career-high 5.4 rebounds, and 31 of his 38 have come on the defensive end. Indiana should give him chances. Over its last five games Indiana shot 44.7% from the field and 33.0% from three, which works out to about 46 misses a game, and it scored 109 or fewer in four of the five.

He has cleared 4.5 in five of seven games this season (10, 6, 8, 5 and 5), and the two misses were 3 and 1. He got to five in only 28 minutes in the 128-109 win over Toronto. His coach sees the same form. "I'd say outside of Jamal Murray, I'd say the whole team is still trying to kind of get themselves going in a rhythm," David Adelman said.

At -103 the Over implies 50.7%, and we'll take a coin-flip price on a guard who has beaten this number five times in seven. The 1-rebound night at New Orleans, in 38 minutes, is what can go wrong. Jokic grabbed 13 that game and left Murray almost nothing.

PICK #2: Nikola Jokic Over 9.5 Assists (-105)

Jokic is shooting a career-low 22% from three. His passing hasn't slipped at all. He has 10 or more assists in five of seven games, and he had 11 against Toronto in 30 minutes while sitting the entire fourth quarter. That was his third triple-double in seven games.

He averages 9.3, a bit under the line, so this one rests on the matchup. Indiana is without its starting point guard, McConnell is questionable, and the Pacers' last five opponents averaged 28 assists against them. Expect the ball to be in Jokic's hands a lot against that backcourt.

At -105, that's a 51.2% chance. His two misses were 8 against Portland and 5 in the opening loss at Oklahoma City, a night Denver scored 84. So a cold shooting game from his teammates would hurt. The other risk is a blowout that sends Denver's starters to the bench early, but the Toronto game showed he can get to double digits in 30 minutes.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.