New Mexico State vs. Gonzaga Prediction, Men's College Basketball Odds & Best Bets (11/7)

Fact checked at 9:05 AM ET, Nov 7, 2026

Odds as of 9:02 AM ET, Nov 7, 2026

Gonzaga hosts New Mexico State at 5:00 PM ET at McCarthey Athletic Center in its home opener, and the Bulldogs should win this comfortably. Expect a margin in the mid-20s, in a game that stays in the 140s. New Mexico State lost its best player in its opener and then couldn't make shots against a Division II team, so it's hard to see the Aggies holding up their end of a high-scoring game. Covering 29.5, though, would ask Gonzaga to keep pressing long after the result is settled.

Both teams are 1-0. Gonzaga, 15th in the preseason media poll, beat Purdue 78-72 in Las Vegas. New Mexico State trailed Division II Western New Mexico 31-26 at halftime before winning 73-66, and it lost senior guard Gabe Warren, the player coach Jason Hooten called his best, to a season-ending torn ACL early in that game. The Aggies brought in 12 newcomers and kept only three players from last season, so last year's numbers don't tell you much about this team.

New Mexico State vs. Gonzaga Predictions

• Pick #1: New Mexico State +29.5 (-110)
• Pick #2: Under 151.5 (-112)

PICK #1: New Mexico State +29.5 (-110)

The ratings don't see a 30-point game. One widely used efficiency model projects Gonzaga 89-65, a 24-point win. Another major rating has New Mexico State 131st nationally, higher than most of the teams Gonzaga brings to Spokane for non-conference home games this season.

Mark Few ran a tight eight-man rotation against Purdue, and six players on his roster have yet to play in a regular-season game. Beat coverage expects some of them to debut once this one gets away from New Mexico State, and that's the stretch where big leads shrink. The Aggies also have a guard who can score late in DJ Dudley, who had 22 points and four threes in the opener, and they made 81.8% of their free throws in that game.

Most of the spread money, 88% from 76% of the bets, is on Gonzaga. We're on the other side. At -110 we're backing a 52.4% chance, and a mid-20s margin clears it. This loses if Gonzaga's starters stay on the floor and keep running well into the second half.

PICK #2: Under 151.5 (-112)

Start with New Mexico State's shooting. The Aggies went 9-for-31 in the first half against Western New Mexico, 2 of 12 from three, and finished at 41.4% from the field against a Division II team. Since then they've lost Warren for the year, and KK Robinson, a seventh-year guard coming back from two ACL tears, will be limited again. After the opener, Hooten's complaint was that a smaller team outrebounded his. Now he gets a team he called "tall and big and just really, really skilled."

Gonzaga's defense held Purdue to 5 of 21 from three. That game still reached 150, but only because the teams combined for 41 made free throws, 26 of them Gonzaga's. Without that many trips to the line, this total looks high.

The same efficiency model that backs the Aggies on the spread has this game at 154, so we're going against it here. Its 65 points for New Mexico State look generous for a team that just lost its best player and shot this poorly against a Division II opponent. The Under has 78% of the money from 67% of the bets, and -112 works out to 52.8%. Gonzaga in transition at home is the threat: if the Bulldogs reach the 90s, the total goes over almost on their points alone.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.