March Madness Elite Eight Best Bets

Saturday, March 28, features two March Madness Elite Eight games, including three Big Ten Teams. 

On Thursday night, in Houston, South Region No. 9 seed Iowa kept its magical run alive with a 77-71 win over arch-rival No. 4 seed Nebraska. Iowa not only takes the season series from Nebraska, 2-1, but they also reach their first Elite Eight since 1987. The Hawkeyes will square off with No. 3 seed Illinois, who defeated No. 2 seed Houston in their own backyard, 65-55 in a slugfest.

Over in the West Region, it’s a bit more chalky. Big Ten Tournament champion No. 2 seed Purdue survived No. 11 Texas 79-77, while No. 1 seed Arizona took out Darius Acuff Jr. and Arkansas, 109-88.  

With Iowa vs Illinois tipping off at 6:09 PM ET and Purdue vs. Arizona following at 8:49 PM ET, we have three best bets to deliver between the two games. 

March Madness Predictions

• PICK #1: Purdue +6.5 (-115) vs. Arizona
• PICK #2: Purdue vs. Arizona Over 151.5 (-115) Total Points
• PICK #3: Iowa +6.5 (-105) vs. Illinois



PICK #1: Purdue +6.5 (-115)

My gut reaction seeing this line was to snap bet Arizona, and that’s exactly why Purdue +6.5 is the play. Braden Smith, Fletcher Loyer, and Trey Kaufman-Renn have proven they will not go down easily. Yes, they almost lost to No. 11 seed Texas, but that is an uber-talented Longhorns squad that underperformed all year until the tournament. In our eyes, Arizona is the best team in this tournament, and many people are just ready to back them blindly. But Purdue has some matchup advantages here, and a whole lot of heart and determination to keep this run going. 

Purdue has the nation’s most efficient offense, per KenPom, and they have the three-point shooting (38.1%) to stay in this game against an Arizona defense that forces you to make shots from beyond the arc. We don’t believe Kaufman-Renn and Oscar Cluff will be too effective against the Arizona frontcourt, but I expect Fletcher Loyer and CJ Cox to have big shooting nights. 

Purdue’s defense, while not spectacular, will make it somewhat difficult for Arizona to operate how they want to. Arizona relies on getting to the rim and scoring in the paint, but Purdue packs the paint and forces you to shoot from outside, where Arizona is capable but not particularly comfortable. Purdue also never fouls, and Arizona likes to get to the free-throw line. 

PICK #2: Purdue vs. Arizona Over 151.5 (-115) Total Points

It’s funny, we were just analyzing how Purdue’s defense neutralizes Arizona’s strengths somewhat, but we're taking the Over here. That’s because we know the oddsmakers understand the style and matchup, and there was an overcorrection setting the total this low. We still believe the winner of this game will reach 80 points. Purdue might try to slow things down while Arizona likes to run, but at the end of the day, these are two top-four offenses, and Purdue can hit threes all night, while Arizona’s physicality and desire to go inside will eventually wear out the Purdue forwards. 

Foul trouble for Kaufman-Renn and Cluff late in this game is likely, and even if they stay clean, keeping this Arizona team off the offensive glass for 40 minutes is a tall task. This game will be played comfortably into the 70s for both teams. 

PICK #3: Iowa +6.5 (-105)

Ben McCollum is just a flat-out winner, and we're in with the dogs this Saturday. McCollum, Stirtz, and this supporting cast beat Clemson, Florida, and Nebraska; why can’t they keep it close or even beat Illinois?

These teams matched up once this year, in Iowa City back in January, and Illinois won 75-69. Keaton Wagler, Andrej Stojakovic, and Kylan Boswell all balled out for Illinois. Stirtz struggled for Iowa, and it was Tavion Banks and Tate Sage that kept the game close. 

Illinois has a severe height advantage, and they are far more balanced, flexing excellent ball movement and top-tier shot selection, but Iowa is just so tough and embraces being the underdog. Illinois has collapsed against many teams with a lead late in games this year, and Iowa has no quit. Give us the Hawkeyes to at least stay inside the number.