Jets vs. Patriots Prediction, NFL Week 6 Odds & Best Bets (10/18)

Fact checked at 8:32 AM ET, Oct 18, 2026

Odds as of Oct 18, 7:39 AM ET

The Jets (2-3) open their division schedule at Gillette Stadium against the Patriots (3-2), and the defenses should run this game. New England allows 18.8 points per game, fourth-fewest in the NFL. The Jets allow 19.2, tied for fifth, rank fourth in total defense at 293 yards per game and give up 195.4 passing yards a game, tied for third-fewest. They also sacked the Browns eight times last week.

The Jets' offense won't push the number up either. It scores 18.6 points per game, tied for 27th, and it is still missing running back Breece Hall, wide receiver Adonai Mitchell and left guard Dylan Parham, all ruled out on Friday's final report. What it does do is hold onto the ball. Geno Smith has not thrown an interception in five starts.

New England is a 7.5-point favorite with a total of 43.5. The spread opened at Patriots -9.5 and has come down two points toward the Jets.

Kickoff is Sunday at 1:00 PM ET at Gillette Stadium, on CBS.

Jets vs. Patriots Predictions

• Pick #1: Under 43.5 (-110)
• Pick #2: Geno Smith Under 0.5 Interceptions (-112)
• Pick #3: Jets +7.5 (-113)

PICK #1: Under 43.5 (-110)

Four of the Jets' five games have stayed under 43.5, with combined scores of 33, 37, 55, 35 and 29. They scored 23, 17, 24, 12 and 17 in those games. New England's games have gone under three times in five (23, 23, 41, 55 and 62), and its defense has held opponents to 13, 3, 35, 26 and 17. Put the two teams together and it's seven unders in 10 games.

The Patriots also get cornerback Christian Gonzalez back after two missed games. The Under has drawn 71% of the money on 61% of the bets. Weather won't help or hurt; the National Weather Service has sunny skies, low 50s and about 3 mph of wind at kickoff.

At -110 you need this to land 52.4% of the time. The worry is New England's last two weeks: 29 points at Buffalo, 45 against Las Vegas, with Drake Maye throwing seven touchdown passes and one interception, and now A.J. Brown is back off injured reserve. The total has also ticked up a point from its 42.5 opener.

PICK #2: Geno Smith Under 0.5 Interceptions (-112)

The Jets haven't thrown an interception this season. Smith has 147 attempts across five starts without one. The team has just three giveaways of any kind.

The volume is working in this pick's favor. With Hall and Mitchell out, the Jets have leaned on Braelon Allen, who carried 24 times for 116 yards against Cleveland, and Smith has thrown 15 and 30 passes the last two weeks. New England's defense has three interceptions in five games.

A -112 price works out to 52.8%, and that's a fair ask for a quarterback who hasn't been picked off yet. What would hurt is a Patriots lead that forces Smith to throw more, with Gonzalez likely matched on Garrett Wilson.

PICK #3: Jets +7.5 (-113)

New England has scored 20 points or fewer in three of its five games: 10 at Seattle, 20 against Pittsburgh and 6 at Jacksonville. In a game totaled at 43.5, a 7.5-point head start is a lot of cushion for a team with the Jets' defense.

Their three losses came by 3 to Green Bay, 7 at Detroit and 11 at Chicago, so two of the three stay inside this number. The line has moved their way, from -9.5 to -7.5, and the turnover numbers lean their way too: the Jets are plus-3, the Patriots minus-5. The -113 price implies 53.1%.

This is the same game as the first two picks: low scoring, the Jets' defense keeping it close, and Smith keeping the ball away from New England. The danger is Maye's form and last season's results, a 27-14 and 42-10 Patriots sweep, although rookie Brady Cook started for the Jets in the 42-10 game. The Jets also have to score enough without Hall, Mitchell and Parham against a defense allowing 18.8 points a game.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.