Illinois State vs. Purdue Prediction, Men's College Basketball Odds & Best Bets (11/9)

Fact checked at 9:39 AM ET, Nov 9, 2026

Odds as of 8:24 AM ET, Nov 9, 2026

Purdue is 0-2 for the first time since 1976. The Boilermakers lost 78-72 to Gonzaga in Las Vegas, then dropped their home opener 83-80 to Valparaiso in double overtime on a buzzer-beating three. Illinois State, picked second in the Missouri Valley's preseason poll, visits Mackey Arena in West Lafayette for an 8:30 PM ET tip at 1-1, with a 90-85 overtime loss at Saint Mary's and a 100-55 win over Central State, a Division II school. Two games is a thin read on anyone, but one problem shows up in both of Purdue's: it can't make a three. That should keep Purdue's offense stuck, the score in the low 140s and Illinois State inside 15.5.

Illinois State vs. Purdue Predictions

• Pick #1: Illinois State +15.5 (-110)
• Pick #2: Under 144.5 (-106)

PICK #1: Illinois State +15.5 (-110)

One widely used rating system has Purdue winning by 10.5 points, with an 85% chance to win. That leaves five points of room against this spread, and -110 only implies 52.4%.

Illinois State can shoot, and Purdue can't. Johnny Kinziger scored 30 at Saint Mary's on 6-of-10 from three, the Redbirds made 13 of 27 from deep that night, and the game was tied 77-77 after 40 minutes on the road. Purdue is 10-of-49 from three across its two games. Without an outside shot, it's hard to pull 16 clear of a team that has one. Both Purdue losses were by single digits, and Valparaiso, which outshot Purdue 46.5% to 37.5% at Mackey, was level with the Boilermakers when regulation ended.

Size is where this could go wrong. Illinois State's roster lists one player taller than 6-foot-9, Nick Allen at 6-11, and Saint Mary's won the glass 41-33 with 16 offensive rebounds. Daniel Jacobsen is averaging 25 points on 18-of-24 shooting, and Purdue outrebounded Valparaiso 46-37. If Purdue scores inside and its shooters finally warm up at home, the margin can get away. The spread money tracks the bets almost exactly: 49% of the money and 50% of the tickets are on Illinois State. Men's college basketball has no availability report, so both lineups are projected, and this assumes Jacobsen and Kinziger play their usual roles.

PICK #2: Under 144.5 (-106)

Purdue and Valparaiso were tied 58-58 at the end of regulation. That's 116 points in 40 minutes, and the game reached 163 only because it went to two overtimes. Purdue scored 72 against Gonzaga, so its two regulation totals are 72 and 58. Look at the threes: 5-of-21 against Gonzaga, 5-of-28 against Valparaiso.

Illinois State's defense held up on the perimeter in its one Division I game, too: Saint Mary's went 4-of-17 from three. The rating system that makes Purdue a 10.5-point favorite projects 142 total points, below this number. The money on the total points the same way, with 61% of it on the Under from 45% of the bets. At -106, the implied probability is 51.5%.

Not every model sees it this way. One public model projects about 149 points, and all four games these teams have played this season finished above 144.5. Two of those four went to overtime, though, and one was Illinois State's 100-55 win over Central State, a Division II opponent. Purdue finding its shot at home, or another overtime, would sink it.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.