Heat vs. Hawks Prediction, NBA Odds & Best Bets (10/28)

Fact checked at 9:05 AM ET, Oct 28, 2026

Odds as of 8:29 AM ET, Oct 28, 2026

Miami walks into State Farm Arena still looking for its first win. Tip-off is 7:00 PM ET. The Heat are 0-4 after losses to Minnesota, Detroit, Charlotte and Dallas, and they failed to cover in all four. Atlanta is 2-2: it won at Orlando and at Charlotte, then dropped both ends of a home-and-home with unbeaten Houston. After four games, the Hawks score 121 points a night, fifth in the league. The Heat score 109, which ranks 27th, and allow 121.8.

The bet here is that Miami's offense stays stuck and Atlanta wins. The Heat traded for Giannis Antetokounmpo before the season, and his shots have come out of Bam Adebayo's and Andrew Wiggins' share. A quiet Miami night gives us a Hawks win and both of those starters under their scoring lines, so all three picks cash in the same game.

The market has Atlanta -3.5 at -110, the number it opened at, and -158 on the moneyline. The total opened at 239.5 and sits at 241.5. On the latest official injury report, Atlanta lists Aaron Wiggins as questionable with a left knee contusion, with Mouhamed Gueye and Henri Veesaar out. Miami lists Simone Fontecchio as doubtful with an illness and Pelle Larsson as probable with a right ankle sprain. Neither team is on a back-to-back.

Heat vs. Hawks Predictions

• Pick #1: Hawks Moneyline (-158)
• Pick #2: Andrew Wiggins Under 11.5 Points (-101)
• Pick #3: Bam Adebayo Under 18.5 Points (-113)

PICK #1: Hawks Moneyline (-158)

Miami hasn't reached 112 points in a game yet. It has scored 106, 111, 110 and 109 and lost by 25, 17, 5 and 4. Atlanta averages 121 and the Heat give up 121.8, so the Hawks only need a normal night. Both of Atlanta's losses came against Houston, one of the league's unbeaten teams.

The price of -158 implies a 61.2% chance. The moneyline betting leans our way. Only 27% of moneyline bets are on Atlanta, but those bets make up 46% of the money, while most bettors take Miami's plus price. One public projection model gives Atlanta a 62.7% chance to win, just above the price.

This case has soft spots. Most of Atlanta's scoring average comes from two road wins, 132 at Orlando and 128 at Charlotte, and it scored 114 and 110 against Houston. Miami outscored Charlotte 35-19 in the fourth quarter of a 115-110 loss, so this team can make a run. If Aaron Wiggins can't go, Atlanta loses its top bench scorer (16, 19, 16 and 12 points). The spread money also leans the other way, with 88% of it on the Heat +3.5. We'll still back the better offense at home against a team that has lost four straight.

PICK #2: Andrew Wiggins Under 11.5 Points (-101)

Wiggins averaged 15.4 points for Miami last season. With Antetokounmpo and Bobby Portis arriving from Milwaukee, he has slid to the fourth or fifth option in the starting five, and the box scores show it: 11, 8, 4 and 12. That's three of four games under 11.5, and the 12 against Dallas cleared the line by half a point.

His minutes have swung from 18 in the loss at Charlotte to 34 against Dallas, and he's averaging 10 shots a game. Antetokounmpo, Adebayo and Davion Mitchell have each taken more shots than he has, and Mitchell has scored 11, 18, 22 and 21. Wiggins has started all four games and isn't on the injury report, so the role in those logs is the role he plays tonight.

At -101, the Under implies 50.2%. Atlanta allows 111.8 points a game, tied for 13th, and nothing about that defense should open things up for a secondary wing. The danger is a long night: his 12 came in 34 minutes, and the Over at -126 shows the market leaning toward him getting there. If Fontecchio sits, Miami has one fewer forward behind Wiggins, though Fontecchio has played three minutes in each of his two games. It's a four-game record, but every one of those games came with this same starting five.

PICK #3: Bam Adebayo Under 18.5 Points (-113)

Last season Adebayo averaged 20.1 points on 15.7 shots a game. Through four games next to Antetokounmpo, he's at 11.8 points on 11.3 shots. The log: 15 against Minnesota, 4 against Detroit, 20 at Charlotte and 8 against Dallas, in 31, 23, 39 and 30 minutes. He cleared 18.5 only in his longest night of the season. Antetokounmpo has scored 35, 36 and 29 in three of the four games, and Adebayo has finished behind Antetokounmpo or Mitchell in scoring every time.

He's expected to start at center against Onyeka Okongwu, with Jock Landale available behind Okongwu, so Atlanta has its usual size. The Under at -113 works out to 53.1%.

This pick gets the most pushback. The Over is also -113, at least one public projection has him near 19.5, and he can score 20 on any night, as he did at Charlotte. Erik Spoelstra said the staff will work to get Adebayo aggressive and into his spots, and Adebayo said "the outside noise wants to make me a scapegoat." A bigger role could be coming. Four games is a small sample, but the starting five hasn't changed and his shots are still well below last season's. If Miami's offense stays stuck, he stays under.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.