Grambling State vs. Texas Prediction, Men's College Basketball Odds & Best Bets (11/9)

Fact checked at 9:39 AM ET, Nov 9, 2026

Odds as of 9:36 AM ET, Nov 9, 2026

No. 7 Texas (2-0) hosts Grambling State (1-0) at 7:00 PM ET at Moody Center in Austin, the first meeting between the schools. Texas has won by 50 and 48, 109-59 over Chicago State and 98-50 over Gardner-Webb, and shot at least 60 percent from the floor both times. Grambling State beat Northern Illinois 89-87 on a neutral floor in its only game. We expect Texas to win comfortably and put up big numbers again, but Grambling's offense should score enough to stay inside the spread and help carry this past the total. Both picks ride on Grambling getting its points.

Grambling State vs. Texas Predictions

• Pick #1: Grambling State +36.5 (-105)
• Pick #2: Over 152.5 (-110)

PICK #1: Grambling State +36.5 (-105)

This spread is a couple of points too big. One widely used rating system makes Texas about a 34-point favorite. The line has drifted that way too: it opened at 37.5 at one major book and sits at 36.5 at most books now, even with most of the spread money on Texas. At -105, the implied probability is 51.2%.

Texas also has little reason to leave its starters in once this gets away. Against Gardner-Webb, nobody on the roster played more than 23 minutes, and seven players scored in double figures. A 30-point lead late in the second half belongs to the reserves.

Grambling has shown it can score, shooting 32 of 50 in its only game while Isaiah Miranda went for 29 points on 10-of-12 shooting. That was Northern Illinois, though, not a top-10 defense. Texas has held two opponents to 54.5 points a game on 36.8% shooting and forced 38 turnovers, 23 of them by Gardner-Webb. Chicago State, which the same ratings place below Grambling, lost by 50 in Austin. If the Texas press gets that kind of turnover night again, the margin runs past 40. Neither school publishes an availability report, so both starting fives are projected.

PICK #2: Over 152.5 (-110)

Texas has scored 109 and 98 on 62.5% and 60.7% shooting, and its defense feeds the offense: it beat Gardner-Webb 28-2 in fast-break points and 31-8 in points off turnovers. Grambling put up 89 on 64% shooting in its opener. Texas averages 103.5 points and allows 54.5, which adds up to 158.

Most of the action is on this side, with 85% of the total money on the Over from 66% of the bets. The -110 price implies 52.4%.

The rating system that likes Grambling on the spread projects about 151 points, a bit under this number, but ratings this early still rely heavily on preseason data. What sinks this is the same thing that sinks the spread: Texas holding Grambling in the 50s. One of Texas's two games, the 98-50 win, stayed under 152.5.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.