Falcons vs. Packers NFL Week 3 TNF Picks

Green Bay finally gets a home game. The Packers (1-1) opened with a 39-22 loss at Minnesota and a 20-17 overtime win at the Jets, and Thursday night is their first game at Lambeau Field this season. Atlanta (0-2) has lost 20-13 at Pittsburgh and 34-3 at home to Carolina, and its 16 points are the fewest in the league. Neither team has covered a spread this regular season.

The central storyline is at quarterback. Michael Penix Jr. makes his first start since tearing his ACL last November, after Cooper Rush and Jack Strand threw every Atlanta pass through two weeks. That group threw five interceptions, and Atlanta’s 144.0 passing yards per game rank last in the NFL. Green Bay has its own problems up front: the Packers ruled out two starting offensive linemen on their final injury report, along with wide receiver Jayden Reed (neck) and defensive tackle Warren Brinson. Defensive tackle Javon Hargrave is questionable with a concussion.

The market has moved hard toward Atlanta. The Packers opened as high as -7.5 and sit at -4.5 on the consensus line, and their moneyline has drifted from -375 to -250. The total opened at 46.5 and is now 43.5.

Kickoff is Thursday at 8:15 PM ET at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, on Prime Video.

Falcons vs Packers TNF Predictions

• Pick #1: Atlanta Falcons +4.5 over Green Bay Packers (-106)
• Pick #2: Under 43.5 (-115)
• Pick #3: Matthew Golden (GB) Over 52.5 Receiving Yards (-112)

PICK #1: Falcons +4.5 over Packers (-106)

The number has fallen for real reasons, and +4.5 still covers a three- or four-point Packers win against an offense that cannot run the ball or convert third downs.

Start with the move. Green Bay opened -7.5 and the consensus line is now -4.5, a drop through the key number 7, and +5 is available across the market. Bettors are on the same side: Atlanta holds 61% of spread bets and 66% of the spread money.

The quarterback change is the biggest piece of news. Penix is an unknown after ten months away, but the bar is low: he takes over from a group that produced one touchdown pass and five interceptions, and he inherits a running game that averages 138.5 yards per game (7th) at 4.4 yards per carry. Bijan Robinson ran for 83 yards at Pittsburgh and 72 against Carolina.

Green Bay’s offense also lets an underdog hang around. The Packers have converted 4 of 21 third downs (19.05%), last in the league, and their 64.5 rushing yards per game also rank last. They lead the NFL with 26 penalties for 231 yards. Now they play without two starting linemen and without Reed, who drew seven targets in Week 1. They are 0-2 against the spread, including that 20-17 overtime win at the Jets as 3.5-point favorites.

The counter-case is Atlanta’s seven giveaways, most in the league, against a Green Bay defense that has allowed the fifth-fewest yards and is tied for the league lead with 16 tackles for loss. A quarterback in his first game back from knee surgery, on a short week, could add to that count. The larger moneyline bets are on Green Bay (57% of the money from 42% of the bets), and the no-vig moneyline makes the Packers a 68.2% favorite, but both describe a Packers win, and +4.5 still cashes in a close one. +4.5 is the worst number worth playing.

PICK #2: Under 43.5 (-115)

Two offenses that stall on third down meet on a short week, and neither has shown it can finish drives.

Atlanta has one touchdown in two games and has yet to score a touchdown in the red zone. Its 8.0 points per game rank last, and it has converted 6 of 25 third downs. A quarterback making his first start in ten months, with a short week of practice, is not an obvious fix. Green Bay’s passing game makes big plays, at 14.4 yards per completion (tied for 3rd), but the Packers have completed 52.1% of their passes (32nd), they have no running game to lean on, and their line is missing two starters.

The recent totals point the same way. Atlanta has gone under in both regular-season games: 20-13 at Pittsburgh against a 41.5 closing total and 34-3 against Carolina against 43.5. Green Bay’s 20-17 win at the Jets needed overtime and still stayed under 44.5. Both teams played Sunday afternoon, and the Falcons have to travel for a Thursday kickoff.

The market agrees. The total opened at 46.5 and is now 43.5, with 66% of the money on the under, and the no-vig price makes the under a 51.0% proposition.

Weather will not help at open-air Lambeau: the forecast is overcast and 60.1°F, with a 3.5 mph wind and no precipitation. The counter-case: the under is the public side, with 71% of the bets, the drop has already taken the total through the key number 44, and Penix could give Atlanta the passing game it has lacked. Until the Falcons show they can reach the end zone, 43.5 is still a number to play under.

PICK #3: Matthew Golden (GB) Over 52.5 Receiving Yards (-112)

Golden has cleared this line in both games, and his share of the passing game should grow with Reed out.

He caught six passes for 95 yards on a team-high 12 targets at Minnesota, then four for 58 on six targets at the Jets. Christian Watson, whose own line is 71.5, and Tucker Kraft are the other main options, but Reed’s seven Week 1 targets have to go somewhere.

The Packers have to throw. They have 71 pass attempts (7th) against 39 rushes (tied for 31st), and their 64.5 rushing yards per game are the fewest in the league. When Green Bay does connect, it gains ground: 14.4 yards per completion, tied for 3rd. Jordan Love threw for 387 yards in the opener.

Atlanta’s pass defense is thinner than it was a week ago. Cornerback A.J. Terrell Jr. went on injured reserve Tuesday with a groin injury, cornerback Billy Bowman Jr. is questionable, and defensive end Samson Ebukam is out. The Falcons have no interceptions through two games and only four sacks, tied for 17th, so Love should have time against this front even with a patched line.

The risk is volume: Love threw for just 145 yards at the Jets, and the Packers complete barely half their passes. Golden still cleared 52.5 in that low-volume Week 2 game, and with Reed out, his floor rises rather than falls.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.