Cubs vs. Padres Prediction, MLB Wild Card Game 2 Odds & Best Bets (9/30)

Fact checked at 9:09 AM ET, Sep 30, 2026

Odds as of Sep 30, 8:12 AM ET

The Cubs are one loss from going home. San Diego, the NL's No. 4 seed at 91-71, won Game 1 of the best-of-three series 8-0 on Tuesday. Michael King threw seven innings of one-hit ball, and Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado homered in the first inning. The fifth-seeded Cubs (89-73) led the majors with 850 runs this season and managed three hits. Down 1-0, they now play to stay alive.

Chicago turns to Kevin Gausman, announced as the starter after Tuesday's loss. He has been nursing a sore left (non-throwing) shoulder since a diving tag on Sep 23, and he felt well enough after a mound session before Game 1. San Diego counters with Nick Pivetta, who has a 1.45 ERA in four September starts since coming back from nearly five months out with an elbow injury.

San Diego is -140 on the consensus moneyline, with the Cubs at +118. The Padres opened -137 and have edged up since, and 74% of the moneyline money is on them against 64% of the bets. Most books have the total at 7.5, with the Under at -120 and the Over at -100, though at least one major book deals 7. On the run line, the Cubs are -190 at +1.5 and the Padres +154 at -1.5.

First pitch is Wednesday at 10:00 PM ET at Petco Park in San Diego, on Peacock/NBCSN.

Cubs vs. Padres Predictions

• Pick #1: Over 7.5 (-100)
• Pick #2: Dansby Swanson Under 0.5 Hits (-105)
• Pick #3: Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 Hits (+169)

PICK #1: Over 7.5 (-100)

One shutout doesn't cancel 162 games. Chicago scored 850 runs this season, most in the majors, and finished second in on-base percentage at .339. Yes, that lineup went 0-for-20 into the seventh inning against King, but Wednesday it gets Pivetta.

He has made eight starts all season, 34 2/3 innings in all, after missing nearly five months with a flexor strain in his right elbow. His last start, Sep 24 at Los Angeles, took 87 pitches, his most since he came back, and he hasn't gone past five innings in any start since his return. Gausman brings his own questions: a 4.51 ERA over 177 2/3 innings and 26 home runs allowed, 11 of them in 50 1/3 innings across nine starts since the Cubs acquired him. Even money, which implies 50.0%, is a fair price on eight runs out of that matchup.

Most books deal 7.5. Where you find a 7, expect to pay about -125 for the Over. The weather is neutral: the National Weather Service has about 71 degrees at first pitch, falling into the upper 60s, a light southwest breeze of 2 to 3 mph and no rain.

What could spoil it is San Diego's bullpen. King's seven innings Tuesday meant only Yuki Matsui (11 pitches) and Joe Musgrove (22) pitched in relief, so Mason Miller, Adrian Morejon and Bradgley Rodriguez haven't thrown since Sep 26. With that group waiting, the Padres don't need much length from Pivetta, and they allowed 681 runs this season, ninth fewest in the majors. The public leans that way, with 67% of the bets on the Under. The Over still fits with the two props below: the runs can come from the top of either lineup while the bottom of the Cubs' order stays quiet.

PICK #2: Dansby Swanson Under 0.5 Hits (-105)

Swanson is 1-for-16 with two walks over his last five starts (Sep 23-29). The lone hit came Sep 23 against Miami. He batted eighth or ninth every time and got three or four trips to the plate a game, and Tuesday he went 0-for-3 with a strikeout from the ninth spot.

Nothing about Wednesday gives him more chances. MLB.com's projected lineup has him ninth again against the right-handed Pivetta, with Alex Bregman at DH and Pedro Ramírez at third. That's three plate appearances, maybe four. The Cubs haven't posted a lineup yet, so the pick assumes he starts and hits there.

Pivetta's numbers point the same way. He has held hitters to a .206 average with a 1.01 WHIP and 42 strikeouts in his 34 2/3 innings. Eight starts is a short résumé, but it matches his September form. Miller and Morejon are behind him on three days' rest.

The book doesn't agree. The Over on Swanson's hits is -127, which makes a hit the slight favorite, and five starts is a short window for a veteran shortstop. If the Cubs bat around, a fourth or fifth plate appearance changes the math. Seiya Suzuki Over 0.5 Hits (-163) was the other option. We picked Swanson because his bet doesn't need the same Cubs rally the Over does.

PICK #3: Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 Hits (+169)

Tatis is 9-for-18 over his last five starts (Sep 23-29) with at least two hits in four of them. He led off every time and came up three to five times a game. The one miss was an 0-for-4 on Sep 26 against Arizona, and he still walked, drove in a run and scored that night.

Game 1 was more of the same. He hit the first pitch he saw over the center-field wall, added a second hit, then stole second in the seventh and came around to score when catcher Carson Kelly's throw got away. MLB.com's projection keeps him leading off, with Dustin Harris back in the No. 2 spot against a right-hander, and leading off means more trips to the plate than anyone else on the Padres gets.

Gausman has allowed a .259 average this season, 179 hits in 177 2/3 innings, and 51 hits in 50 1/3 innings as a Cub. +169 works out to a 37.2% chance.

Two hits is a real ask, and the Under at -228 makes that clear; the payout reflects it. Gausman's leash matters too: Clay Holmes, Shota Imanaga and David Peterson, none of whom pitched Tuesday, are behind him, so Tatis could see three or four different arms. The lineup isn't posted yet, so his leadoff spot is assumed. His Over 1.5 total bases (-107) and Over 1.5 hits plus runs plus RBIs (-154) rest on the same five games, and we went with the hits line. It moves with the Over, too: a big night from the Padres' leadoff man is one of the ways that total gets to eight.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.