Cowboys vs. Packers Prediction, NFL Week 6 SNF Odds & Best Bets (10/18)

Fact checked at 8:35 AM ET, Oct 18, 2026

Odds as of Oct 18, 7:40 AM ET

Dallas (2-3) visits Lambeau Field ten days after a 24-16 home loss to Tampa Bay on a Thursday night. Green Bay (3-2) has won two straight, the last a 31-7 rout of Chicago. The Packers are 1.5-point favorites, and the total has climbed from 51.5 to 53.5.

We're focused on one matchup: Green Bay's passing game against a Dallas defense that's missing bodies in coverage. The Cowboys allow 27.2 points per game, 25th in the league, and have given up 28 or more in three of their five games. Cornerback Cobie Durant is out, linebacker DeMarvion Overshown was downgraded to out, and cornerback Ameer Speed is questionable. Joey Porter Jr. is questionable too, though ESPN reports he will play. Flip it around and Green Bay allows 199.4 passing yards per game, fifth fewest, to an offense whose tight ends see few targets. So we want Christian Watson in the end zone and Jake Ferguson held in check.

Kickoff is 8:20 PM ET Sunday on NBC. The National Weather Service has clear skies, temperatures in the mid-50s and a south-southwest wind around 12 mph.

Cowboys vs. Packers Predictions

• Pick #1: Christian Watson Anytime Touchdown (+120)
• Pick #2: Jake Ferguson Under 25.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

PICK #1: Christian Watson Anytime Touchdown (+120)

Jordan Love has thrown exactly two touchdown passes in every game this season. Six of those ten went to Watson. He has scored in four of five games, twice against Minnesota, once against the Jets, once against Atlanta and twice more against Chicago last Sunday, when he caught six balls for 143 yards. The one blank came in the 17-14 win at Tampa Bay, where he saw only three targets.

His usage backs that up. Watson has played between 68% and 90% of the offensive snaps every week and has 474 yards on 26 catches. Dallas gives up 231.8 passing yards a game, 16th in the league, and Durant won't be on the field. Speed may not be either.

+120 works out to a 45.5% chance, and he has scored in 80% of his games. Others compete for the scores. Matthew Golden and Tucker Kraft get plenty of looks, and MarShawn Lloyd ran in two touchdowns against Chicago. Another Tampa-style afternoon can happen. At plus money on the receiver who has caught most of Love's touchdowns, we'll take that chance.

PICK #2: Jake Ferguson Under 25.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Ferguson's longest catch all season is 19 yards. He has stayed under 25.5 in four of five games: 6 against the Giants, 43 against Washington, 23 against Baltimore, 11 at Houston and 19 against Tampa Bay. Only once has he caught more than three passes.

He's on the field plenty, 60% to 83% of the snaps each week. The ball just doesn't come his way much. His targets have gone two, four, five, four and six, never more than about 14% of Dallas's throws. George Pickens had 130 yards on 13 targets against Tampa Bay, and CeeDee Lamb, who played 57% of the snaps that night with a thigh injury, practiced fully this week. If Watson and Love build a lead, Dallas will have to throw. That worries us less than you'd think: in the 34-30 win at Houston and the 34-31 loss to Baltimore, with Dallas passing all game, Ferguson finished with 11 and 23 yards.

Green Bay's pass defense makes the job tougher still. It is playing without cornerback Benjamin St-Juste, though, and Brandon Cisse is questionable. One catch-and-run like the Washington game would beat this. -110 means a 52.4% break-even for a number he has topped once in five tries.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.