Chiefs vs. Dolphins Prediction, NFL Week 3 Odds & Picks (9/27)

Fact checked at 5:50 PM ET, Sep 26, 2026

Odds as of Sep 26, 5:30 PM ET

Kansas City is 2-0, Miami is 0-2, and the market has already priced that in. The Chiefs opened between -10.5 and -11.5 depending on the book when the Week 3 lines went up after last Sunday's games, were pushed to -11.5 and -12.5 at some books midweek and are back to -10.5 almost everywhere. The total opened around 45.5 and sits there, and the Chiefs' moneyline is about -650.

The difference between these teams so far is scoring. Kansas City averages 32.0 points per game, 3rd in the league, after beating Denver 31-10 and Indianapolis 33-30 in overtime. Miami averages 13.0, 31st, after losing 27-13 at Las Vegas and 35-13 at San Francisco. The Dolphins will also be without Caleb Douglas, who leads the team in receiving yards and has been ruled out with an ankle injury. He played 86% of the offensive snaps at San Francisco before he got hurt and has 10 targets this season.

Miami hasn't covered a spread yet. The Chiefs are still without left tackle Josh Simmons (back), who hasn't played this season.

Kickoff is Sunday, Sep 27, at 1:00 PM ET at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, on CBS. The National Weather Service forecast for Miami Gardens is mostly sunny and 84 degrees at kickoff, with a light north wind of 3 to 5 mph and no rain.

Chiefs vs. Dolphins Predictions

• Pick #1: Greg Dulcich Under 22.5 Receiving Yards (-113)
• Pick #2: Chiefs -10.5 (-110)
• Pick #3: Over 45.5 (-108)

PICK #1: Greg Dulcich Under 22.5 Receiving Yards (-113)

Dulcich is Miami's first tight end on the depth chart, plays a lot, and has 35 receiving yards for the season.

He was on the field for 77% of the offensive snaps against Las Vegas and 61% at San Francisco, and the snaps haven't turned into yards. Two catches for 18 yards on two targets in Week 1, two for 17 on three targets in Week 2, under 22.5 both times. There isn't much volume around him either. Malik Willis threw 27 passes in the opener and 23 the next week.

Now he draws one of the league's stingiest pass defenses. Kansas City has allowed 170.5 passing yards per game, 4th fewest in the league, and it held Denver to 10 points in the opener. Defensive tackle Chris Jones was limited in practice all week with a calf injury, but he has no game designation and is expected to play.

Douglas's absence is the thing that could break this. His 10 targets have to go somewhere, and the Dolphins haven't said who gets them. The depth chart lists Ryan Miller behind Douglas, but Miller is questionable with hip and back injuries, so veteran Jalen Tolbert, inactive the first two weeks, is expected to make his Dolphins debut. Chris Bell carried a knee injury on the report this week, practiced fully Friday and has no designation, though he has played only 52% and 41% of the snaps so far. If Miami falls behind by two scores it could throw more than it has, and one catch-and-run beats this number. The line has already come down a yard, from 23.5 to 22.5, and at -113 the break-even rate is 53.1%. The reason to think he clears it is that nothing about his role has changed: he is a blocker first, Willis has thrown 27 and 23 passes, and any targets that shift from Douglas to a tight end still have to go through a Chiefs defense allowing 170.5 passing yards a game. Two games under the line is a short history, so treat this as a lean rather than a lock.

Anyone who would rather bet his catches can take Dulcich Under 2.5 Receptions (-155) instead; he has two catches in each game. This goes with the Chiefs spread, since both benefit from a limited Miami offense.

PICK #2: Chiefs -10.5 (-110)

The scoring gap is the case for laying the points with Kansas City, and the market got there first.

The Chiefs opened between -10.5 and -11.5 for the week, were bet up to -11.5 and -12.5 at some books early on, and are back to -10.5 at nearly every book, priced from -105 (BetMGM, Fanatics) to -112 (FanDuel). DraftKings still shows -10 on some boards, so shop before you lay it.

Kansas City's 32.0 points per game rank 3rd, and Miami's 13.0 rank 31st. The Dolphins have allowed 62 points in two games. Kenneth Walker III has run for 173 and 117 yards, and Travis Kelce caught 9 of 11 targets for 101 yards against the Colts. Miami now has to keep pace without Douglas, who played 91% of the snaps in the opener and 86% in Week 2 before the injury.

Ten and a half on the road is a lot of points to give, and Kansas City has already shown it can win without covering: it beat Indianapolis by only three in overtime as roughly a six-point favorite. Simmons is out again at left tackle, and Kahlil Benson makes another start there after playing every snap in the first two games. This is also the popular side, with 66% of spread bets and 68% of the money on Kansas City, and 96% of moneyline bets. Anyone who took the Chiefs at -11.5 or worse early in the week already has a worse number than this one. The implied chance at -110 is 52.4%.

The Chiefs moneyline (about -650) is the other way to back them, at a steep price. The spread fits with both other picks: a 34-13 Kansas City win covers, clears 45.5 and fits a quiet day for Dulcich.

PICK #3: Over 45.5 (-108)

Kansas City's offense can carry this total almost on its own.

The Chiefs have scored 31 and 33 points, and Miami has allowed 27 and 35. Kansas City's two games finished with 41 and 63 total points, and Miami's with 40 and 48, so each team has gone over once and under once.

The passing game gives Kansas City a second way to score. Patrick Mahomes threw for 382 yards on 47 attempts against the Colts, and the Chiefs average 283.0 passing yards per game, 5th in the league. Miami ranks 18th in passing yards allowed (223.5 per game) and 17th against the run (112.5), and it has given up at least 27 points in both games.

The total opened around 45.5 for the week and is 45.5 at the consensus price after bouncing between 45 and 46.5. BetMGM and BetRivers still have 45, a half point worth taking. The forecast at Hard Rock Stadium is mostly sunny and 84 degrees at kickoff, with a light north wind and no rain, so nothing there slows anyone down.

At -108 this is close to a coin flip, 51.9% implied, and the case against it is simple: Miami has to contribute. The Dolphins average 13.0 points, 31st in the league, and they lose the receiver who leads them in yards. A 31-10 Chiefs win, like the opener against Denver, stays under. Most bettors lean the other way, with 65% of total bets and 60% of the money on the Under. Still, the Over and the Dulcich Under can both win in the same game. In a 34-13 result, Kansas City scores most of the points while Miami's tight end stays quiet, and the Chiefs cover too.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.