Celtics vs. Pistons Prediction, NBA Opening Night Odds & Best Bets (10/20)

Fact checked at 7:58 AM ET, Oct 20, 2026

Odds as of Oct 20, 7:08 AM ET

The season opens in Detroit with last year's top two teams in the East, and neither looks like the version that went out early in the playoffs. The Pistons won 60 games and the No. 1 seed, then lost Game 7 of the conference semifinals at home to Cleveland. Cade Cunningham, Jalen Duren and Ausar Thompson are back. Tobias Harris, Isaiah Stewart and Caris LeVert are gone, replaced by John Collins, Isaiah Joe and Taurean Prince. Boston sent Jaylen Brown to Philadelphia for Paul George and draft picks and signed Mitchell Robinson to play center. Jayson Tatum missed the first 62 games of last season after Achilles surgery. He carries no injury designation into the opener.

The defense is the part that carries over. Boston allowed 107.2 points per game last season, fewest in the league. Detroit allowed 109.6, third-fewest. We think this one gets played at that level, a grind that finishes in the 210s, with Payton Pritchard and the Boston bench supplying the scoring the starters can't. Both picks cash in that game. A reserve playing 30 minutes and scoring 16 is nothing unusual in a low-scoring game.

The market has moved to Boston. Detroit opened as a 1.5-point favorite on Saturday. Boston is -1.5 (-109) and -120 on the moneyline after opening at -105. The total opened at 222 and sits at 221.5. Tipoff is Tuesday at 3:00 PM ET at Little Caesars Arena.

Celtics vs. Pistons Predictions

• Pick #1: Under 221.5 (-110)
• Pick #2: Payton Pritchard Over 15.5 Points (-119)

PICK #1: Under 221.5 (-110)

The last three meetings between these teams went under the closing total. Boston won 117-114 at home in November with the total at 233.5. Detroit won 112-105 in Boston in December against 231.5 and 104-103 at home in January against 223.5. None of the three reached 232 points.

Detroit's offense has less to work with this time. Harris, the team's third-leading scorer, is gone, and so is Stewart, its blocks leader. The Pistons made 902 threes last season, 28th in the league, so they don't score in bunches from outside. Boston's defense was already forcing mistakes in October: opponents turned it over 53 times in the two preseason games the Celtics' starters played. One projection model has Detroit winning 109.8 to 108.2. That adds up to 218.

What could beat this is Boston's offense. The Celtics put up 144 on Philadelphia and 124 at Cleveland in the preseason, and their four exhibition games averaged more than 234 combined points. New lineups can also be loose on defense early. At -110, the Under is priced at 52.4%.

PICK #2: Payton Pritchard Over 15.5 Points (-119)

Pritchard has already played this role and scored at this level in it. He averaged a career-high 17.0 points last season. He started through the first half and went to the bench in February, and the move didn't cut his scoring at all. In 29 games as a reserve he averaged 17.2 points in nearly 32 minutes a night and cleared 15.5 in 19 of them.

Joe Mazzulla used him the same way in the preseason, as the first guard off the bench in both games the starters played. He scored 25 points in 24 minutes against Philadelphia and made 5 of 8 threes, then had 7 points and 11 assists in 29 minutes against Charlotte. On Sunday, Pritchard said that if coming off the bench "and playing those minutes" helps the team, that's what he'll do. Boston gave him a two-year extension last week, and Brown's shots have to go somewhere.

At -119, the book has him at 54.3%. The playoffs are the warning sign. In last spring's seven-game series with Philadelphia, he topped 15.5 just once. If Mazzulla leans on Sam Hauser and Baylor Scheierman for shooting, Pritchard's minutes could also land closer to his preseason 24 to 29 than last season's 32.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.