Bills vs. Raiders Prediction, NFL Week 6 Odds & Best Bets (10/18)

Fact checked at 8:35 AM ET, Oct 18, 2026

Odds as of Oct 18, 7:40 AM ET

Buffalo is 4-1 and scores 32.8 points per game, tied for the most in the NFL. The defense hasn't kept up. The Bills allow 28.2 points per game, 28th in the league, and 295.8 passing yards per game, 31st. Las Vegas is 3-2 and puts up 26.4 points a game, eighth in the league, even after two straight losses that ended with a 45-17 beating at New England. The total opened at 47.5 and now sits at 53.5, with Buffalo favored by 5.

The Bills won 37-34 in overtime against the Rams on Monday night, then stayed out west and practiced in Southern California instead of flying home. Their bye comes next week. Coach Klint Kubiak said this week that Kirk Cousins remains the Raiders' starter, even though rookie Fernando Mendoza took the late snaps in the New England loss. Kickoff is Sunday at 4:25 PM ET at Allegiant Stadium, under a roof, on CBS.

We expect points. Buffalo will score, and the Raiders can keep up by throwing against one of the worst pass defenses in the league. All three picks are built on that game.

Bills vs. Raiders Predictions

• Pick #1: Over 53.5 (-110)
• Pick #2: Brock Bowers Over 79.5 Receiving Yards (-113)
• Pick #3: Ashton Jeanty Over 26.5 Receiving Yards (-108)

PICK #1: Over 53.5 (-110)

Seven of these teams' ten games have gone past 53.5. For Buffalo it's four of five: 37-34 at the Rams, 41-31 against Detroit, 36-31 at Houston and a 29-26 loss to New England. For Las Vegas it's three: 45-17 at New England, 30-27 against Kansas City and 35-27 at New Orleans. The Bills have scored at least 24 in every game and 36 or more three times. The Raiders have allowed 27 or more in each of their last three games, and on the other side Buffalo's 28.2 points allowed ranks 28th while Las Vegas gives up 25.8.

The -110 price implies a 52.4% chance. The catch is that the six-point move from 47.5 took the soft number off the board. Two Raiders games ended with 40 total points, and so did Buffalo's 24-16 win over the Chargers. Bills receivers DJ Moore and Joshua Palmer are both questionable, and losing either would thin out Buffalo's passing game. The public agrees with us here: 71% of tickets and 63% of the money are on the Over.

PICK #2: Brock Bowers Over 79.5 Receiving Yards (-113)

A knee injury kept Bowers out of the first two games. In the three since, he has 116 yards at New Orleans, 86 against Kansas City and 110 at New England, with double-digit targets every time. That's three for three over this line, and two of those games cleared it by 30 yards or more.

Now he gets a Buffalo defense that allows 295.8 passing yards a game, 31st of 32, and Raiders receiver Dont'e Thornton Jr. is out. Bowers was limited Wednesday but practiced fully Thursday and Friday, and he has no game designation. Three games is a short log, and Jalen Nailor coming back from a concussion gives Cousins another option. Still, Bowers' worst game since returning was above 79.5. The -113 price works out to 53.1%.

PICK #3: Ashton Jeanty Over 26.5 Receiving Yards (-108)

Newest game first, Jeanty's receiving yards are 50 at New England, 68 against Kansas City, 37 at New Orleans, 15 at the Chargers and 45 against Miami. That's four of five over 26.5, on targets of 6, 8, 3, 7 and 6. The Raiders weren't only throwing to him from behind, either. The 68 came in a three-point loss to the Chiefs and the 45 came in a win over Miami. He had a foot issue this week but practiced fully every day and has no game designation. At -108, the price implies 51.9%.

His one miss was 15 yards against the Chargers, a 26-14 Raiders win that totaled 40 points. A low-scoring game is the danger for all three picks.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.