Bears vs. Falcons Prediction, NFL Week 6 Odds & Best Bets (10/18)

Fact checked at 8:35 AM ET, Oct 18, 2026

Odds as of Oct 18, 7:39 AM ET

Chicago (3-2) arrives in Atlanta off a 31-7 beating in Green Bay, where, with Case Keenum and Tyson Bagent at quarterback, it scored seven points and turned the ball over five times. Caleb Williams should end that experiment. He missed three games with a right hamstring injury, practiced fully all week and carries a questionable tag, and ESPN and NFL Network reported Saturday that the Bears plan to start him. In Week 1 he threw for 269 yards and two touchdowns in a 59-37 win at Carolina.

The defense he's rejoining is in rough shape. Montez Sweat is suspended, Dayo Odeyingbo is on injured reserve, and linebackers T.J. Edwards and Keyshaun Elliott are out, with cornerbacks Kyler Gordon and Tyrique Stevenson both questionable. Edwards is also the player who relays the defensive calls. Chicago allows 19.2 points per game, tied for fifth-fewest, but Sweat, Odeyingbo and Edwards were all on the field while it built that number.

Atlanta (2-3) is 0-2 at home after a 30-23 overtime loss to Baltimore. Before that it won twice on the road, 45-24 in New Orleans and 35-14 in Green Bay. Michael Penix Jr. hurt his ribs late against the Ravens, but he practiced fully all week, has no designation and will start, per the club. Both teams run it well (Chicago averages 173.2 rushing yards, Atlanta 166.8) and both stop the run (Atlanta allows 80.2, Chicago 96.0), so this one should tilt toward the quarterbacks. Atlanta's passing game goes through Drake London.

The market agrees there will be points: the total opened at 47.5 and sits at 52.5, while the Falcons have gone from +3 to +1.5. We think Penix and London carve up a Bears defense missing three starters, and that Penix does it without handing the ball back. Kickoff is Sunday at 1:00 PM ET at Mercedes-Benz Stadium on Fox.

Bears vs. Falcons Predictions

• Pick #1: Drake London Over 88.5 Receiving Yards (-113)
• Pick #2: Michael Penix Jr. Under 0.5 Interceptions (-131)

PICK #1: Drake London Over 88.5 Receiving Yards (-113)

Penix has started three games, and London has gone over this number in every one of them: 194 yards on 10 targets at Green Bay, 96 on six at New Orleans and 118 on 11 against Baltimore. He's drawn roughly a third or more of the targets in each and hasn't played less than 89% of the snaps. Ignore Weeks 1 and 2 (29 and 51 yards). That was a different quarterback.

Chicago is down both starting ends, so Penix should have time, and the corners behind them are banged up. Its run defense ranks ninth in yards allowed, which gives Atlanta one more reason to throw. And if Williams is sharp against a Falcons defense giving up 261.4 passing yards a game, Atlanta won't get to sit on the ball. You're paying -113, a 53.1% break-even.

He cleared the number by just 7.5 yards in New Orleans, and one 68-yard catch did a lot of the work at Green Bay. London also showed up on Friday's injury report as limited with a hip issue, though he got no game designation.

PICK #2: Michael Penix Jr. Under 0.5 Interceptions (-131)

The one interception Penix has thrown this season came in Week 3 at Green Bay. He's been clean in the two games since, and on 77 attempts he's completing 67.5% for 719 yards, three touchdowns and a 104.8 rating. That fits his history: seven picks on 458 career attempts, including three on 276 throws last season. The overtime interception that sank Atlanta against Baltimore came from backup Tua Tagovailoa, after Penix had left with the rib injury.

The Bears have three interceptions in five games, and both of their starting edge rushers are out. Their own coordinator, Dennis Allen, said this week that Atlanta's quick play-action game lets Penix "get the ball out of his hands." At -131, the implied probability is 56.7%.

Volume is what could beat it. A 52.5 total implies more throws than Penix has been making (25, 20 and 32 attempts in his starts), and Atlanta would have to chase if Williams gets Chicago out front. The ribs could matter under pressure, too, although he went through a full week of practice.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.