Appalachian State vs. Auburn Prediction, Men's College Basketball Odds & Best Bets (11/9)

Fact checked at 9:40 AM ET, Nov 9, 2026

Odds as of 8:30 AM ET, Nov 9, 2026

Appalachian State (2-0) visits Auburn (1-0) at 9:00 PM ET at Neville Arena, and this game turns on how many possessions Auburn gets. App State has played at one of the slowest tempos in Division I under Dustin Kerns. Its only game against a Division I opponent, a 63-49 win over Merrimack, had about 57 possessions a side. Its other win, 108-43 over Christendom, came against a USCAA school from outside the NCAA and tells us little. Auburn's 92-59 opener against SE Louisiana ran at about 72 possessions. If App State drags this into the half court, Auburn can win comfortably without getting 24 points clear, and the total stays under 146. Everything below depends on that slower game.

Appalachian State vs. Auburn Predictions

• Pick #1: App State +23.5 (-104)
• Pick #2: Under 146 (-111)

PICK #1: App State +23.5 (-104)

Winning by 24 takes a lot of trips down the floor, and App State keeps the trip count low. Against Merrimack, both teams had about 57 possessions by the standard box-score estimate, and one widely used rating system logs the same figure. Merrimack shot 19-of-54 from the field and 5-of-18 from three. App State made only 8 of its 30 threes and still won by 14, which tells you the defense carried that night.

That rating system makes Auburn a 21.8-point favorite, so this number gives App State about two points to spare. Another public model puts App State's chance to cover +23.5 at 52%. At -104 the implied probability is 51.0%. It's a thin edge, and it comes from the pace.

Auburn has more talent and the depth to wear an opponent down. Ten Tigers played 10 or more minutes and scored in the opener, with Tahaad Pettiford leading at 18. Steven Pearl knows the problem he's facing: App State, he said, "defensively has always done a lot of really good things." Ball security is the weak spot. App State turned it over 14 times against Merrimack, and if Auburn turns giveaways into runouts, the margin can get away fast. No availability report exists for this game, so App State's starting five is projected: Ted Neal, Chad Moodie, Jaylen Colon, Ben Kopetzki and Eren Banks, who started both games. Colon leads the team at 11.5 points a game.

PICK #2: Under 146 (-111)

Kerns' teams walk the ball up. Last season App State ranked 358th in Division I in adjusted tempo on that same rating system, and it sits 360th early this season, with only about 4% of its possessions coming in transition. The Merrimack game finished with 112 points, 34 under this total, and Merrimack had 21 at halftime.

The scoring record alone wouldn't get us here. Of the three games these teams have played, only the Merrimack game stayed under 146. Auburn's opener reached 151 behind a 50-point second half, and App State's game against Christendom also reached 151 against a team from outside the NCAA. This is a bet on App State's pace beating Auburn's. That rating system projects 142 total points, while another public model projects 151, closer to what Auburn did in its opener.

We trust the tempo. Auburn can score without running, though: it had 17 offensive rebounds, went 16-of-27 at the line and made 12-of-26 from three in the opener. If those shooters stay hot or App State's turnovers become layups, this goes over. The -111 price implies 52.6%. Auburn's projected starters are Thomas Dowd, Narcisse Ngoy, Caleb Williams, Kevin Overton and Pettiford, the five who started the opener.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.