76ers vs. Pacers Prediction, NBA Odds & Best Bets (10/28)

Fact checked at 9:05 AM ET, Oct 28, 2026

Odds as of 8:29 AM ET, Oct 28, 2026

Philadelphia comes into Gainbridge Fieldhouse at 3-1, and Indiana is 2-2 and badly thinned out. Tipoff is 7:00 PM ET. Our read: with Joel Embiid back, Philadelphia's defense beats a short-handed Pacers team, and Indiana's guards and wings never get loose. The 76ers moneyline and Unders on Andrew Nembhard and Aaron Nesmith all cash in that game.

The market has moved hard toward Philadelphia. The 76ers opened as 1.5-point favorites and sit around -5 now, and the injury news explains it. Since the line opened, Ivica Zubac (left ankle sprain) was ruled out with no timetable, Nembhard sat out the 110-102 loss in Milwaukee, Ben Sheppard was diagnosed with a torn left meniscus, and Tyrese Haliburton (left hamstring tightness) and Nembhard (neck) both went on the latest official injury report as questionable. T.J. McConnell (right hamstring strain) is out too, and Nesmith is probable with a left hamstring strain. Philadelphia's news went the other way: Embiid and VJ Edgecombe, who both sat in the 106-93 home loss to Detroit, are off the injury report. The 76ers have also had two days off to Indiana's one.

76ers vs. Pacers Predictions

• Pick #1: 76ers Moneyline (-190)
• Pick #2: Andrew Nembhard Under 24.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-122)
• Pick #3: Aaron Nesmith Under 15.5 Points + Rebounds (-125)

PICK #1: 76ers Moneyline (-190)

With Embiid in the lineup, Philadelphia is 3-0: 106-100 at New York, 114-106 over Cleveland and 127-116 over Milwaukee, a night he finished with 28 points, 11 rebounds and 10 assists. The one loss came without him and Edgecombe. Over four games the 76ers have allowed 107 points a game, tied for fifth-fewest in the league.

Indiana is down its starting center and two rotation guards, and both lead guards are undecided. Haliburton, back from the Achilles tear that cost him all of last season, has played at least 31 minutes in all four games, including 35 in Milwaukee before the hamstring tightness showed up on the report.

That is a lot to lay: -190 implies 65.5%, and the number already bakes in much of Indiana's bad news. We'll still lay it with a healthy Philadelphia team that has the better defense and the extra rest against a Pacers rotation running on fumes. What could go wrong is the Philadelphia offense, which ranks in the bottom third in points per game, or a full-strength Indiana backcourt. Haliburton and Nembhard combined for 38 points in the 136-109 win in Brooklyn.

PICK #2: Andrew Nembhard Under 24.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-122)

His longer record with Haliburton on the floor backs the Under. In 2024-25 he averaged 10.0 points, 3.3 rebounds and 5.0 assists, 18.3 combined.

This season he has posted 29, 23 and 18 in points, rebounds and assists: 18 points, 2 rebounds and 9 assists in New Orleans, 16, 2 and 5 against Dallas, and 14, 1 and 3 in Brooklyn. That's two of three under 24.5 in a three-game sample. He hasn't grabbed more than two rebounds in any of them, so points and assists have to carry the whole number. He also comes in off a neck and back issue that kept him out in Milwaukee and held him to 30 minutes in Brooklyn, and he faces a defense that has kept scoring down. At -122 the implied chance is 55.0%.

Haliburton is the swing. If he sits and Nembhard plays, Nembhard runs the offense, and in that role last season he averaged 16.9 points, 2.8 rebounds and 7.7 assists, about 27 combined. If Nembhard doesn't play, most books void the bet; check your book's rules.

PICK #3: Aaron Nesmith Under 15.5 Points + Rebounds (-125)

Nesmith missed the opener with a left hamstring strain, and Indiana has kept him near 20 minutes ever since: 20 against Dallas, 19 in Brooklyn and 21 in Milwaukee. His lines were 9 points and 4 rebounds, then 13 and 1, then 13 and 0. That's 13, 14 and 13, all three under 15.5, and -125 implies 55.6%.

The hamstring is the reason he is under. He is still probable with the strain, and on a managed workload against a defense allowing 107 a game, a mid-teens line asks for more than he has given in any game this season.

His longer record is the problem with this one. In fuller minutes he averaged 12.0 points and 4.0 rebounds in 2024-25 and 13.8 and 4.2 last season, both above this line. With Sheppard and McConnell out, Indiana is short on wings, and if his minutes climb toward 30, the Under is in trouble. Three games is also a small sample.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.