Lakers vs. Warriors Prediction, NBA Odds & Best Bets (10/30)

Fact checked at 7:46 AM ET, Oct 30, 2026

Odds as of 6:50 AM ET, Oct 30, 2026

The Lakers (4-1) visit the Warriors (2-3) at Chase Center tonight for a 10:00 PM ET tip on Prime Video, an NBA Cup group game that also counts in the standings. We think Los Angeles wins this by making shots. Luka Doncic is off the injury report, the Lakers shoot better than anyone in the league, and Golden State gives up the highest shooting percentage in the league. A team that makes that many shots leaves few rebounds behind, which ties the three picks together: the Lakers win, and Walker Kessler and Matisse Thybulle stay short on the boards.

The Lakers are -2.5 on the spread and -136 on the moneyline, with Golden State at +115 and the total at 234.5. Doncic sat out the 103-87 win over the Clippers two nights ago with back tightness, on the second night of a back-to-back, and is not on the latest injury report. Ziaire Williams (foot) is questionable for Los Angeles, and Cameron Carr and Adou Thiero are out. Golden State is without Jimmy Butler III, Moses Moody and Kristaps Porzingis, and Gui Santos (knee) is doubtful.

Lakers vs. Warriors Predictions

• Pick #1: Lakers Moneyline (-136)
• Pick #2: Walker Kessler Under 9.5 Rebounds (+107)
• Pick #3: Matisse Thybulle Under 2.5 Rebounds (-152)

PICK #1: Lakers Moneyline (-136)

Los Angeles is shooting 52.9% from the field, the best mark in the league, and Golden State is allowing 51.1%, the worst. The Warriors give up 119.4 points a game, 21st. The Lakers average 123.2 even with the 103 they scored without Doncic, who is at 36 a game in his four appearances. When these teams met earlier this season, the Lakers went 46-of-81 and won 127-105.

The line has moved their way too, from Lakers -1.5 at the open to -2.5, with 75% of the moneyline money and 71% of the bets on Los Angeles. A -136 price implies 57.6%, and we'd put the Lakers above that with Doncic on the floor.

Stephen Curry is the reason for caution. He scored a season-high 44 in a 119-114 win at Minnesota, and the Warriors have won two straight, including 134-114 at Denver. This is also their first home game since a loss to Memphis, while the Lakers lost 136-129 at home to Portland in Doncic's last game. That's five games behind every number here. The price assumes Doncic plays, so if he's a late scratch, pass.

PICK #2: Walker Kessler Under 9.5 Rebounds (+107)

Kessler has 9, 8, 7, 8 and 9 rebounds in five starts for the Lakers, playing 26 to 35 minutes, and the Under at +107 implies 48.3%.

The objection is his record in Utah, and it explains why the Over is -141. In 2024-25 he averaged 12.2 rebounds in 30.0 minutes and finished under 9.5 in just 16 of 58 games. He also averaged 10.8 in five games last season. His minutes are the same now at 30.4, but his offensive rebounds have fallen from 4.6 a game in 2024-25 to 2.2. The Lakers grab fewer rebounds than any team, 38.0 a game, because they miss so little, and Doncic takes 6.8 a game when he plays.

In the first meeting the Warriors missed 54 shots, and Kessler still stopped at nine in 30 minutes. Golden State also leads the league with 15.6 offensive rebounds a game, and each of those is a board he can't get.

Two of his five games ended at nine, one rebound short of losing. Porzingis being out and Santos doubtful leaves Golden State thin up front, and a cold shooting night from either team would give him more chances. He's listed as available with a splint on his left finger. Five games is a short record to set against a long one, and that's why this is plus money.

PICK #3: Matisse Thybulle Under 2.5 Rebounds (-152)

At -152, five games isn't enough on its own, but Thybulle's longer record holds up. He stayed at two rebounds or fewer in 20 of 30 games last season in Portland, playing 16.0 minutes a night, and in 43 of 65 games in 2023-24, when he played 22.9 minutes, the closest match to his 24.6 now. That's about 66% both times, against the 60.3% that -152 implies.

This season he has 1, 2, 1, 1 and 3 in five starts, playing 22 to 28 minutes. He's on the floor to defend and shoot threes. His biggest minutes came against the Clippers with Doncic and Williams out: 28 minutes, 15 points, four threes and one rebound.

His one miss was the first Warriors game, when he had three on the night Golden State missed 54 shots. He also averaged 3.5 rebounds in two Portland stretches, 22 starts at 27.7 minutes in 2022-23 and 15 games at 20.8 minutes in 2024-25. If Williams sits, Thybulle could play more. The Over is +115.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.